Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)

Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)   The local authorities in my city have just notified me that my newborn son’s name is  not acceptable to them, and that I’m going to have to change it.   If ever there were a case of government overreach, this is it.   They’ve informed me that in order to keep the moniker that I’ve longed to give him, I’ll have to go to the courthouse on my own time and at my own expense to have the child’s name officially registered before a judge.   If, of course, the judge agrees. In this day and I age, there’s no shortage of asininity in the world.  I can be a Satanist.  I can have a sex reassignment.  I can purchase and cohabit with a robot.  But I can’t call my kid what I want to call him?!   What the hell is going on!?   People call their kids all sorts of crazy, dimwitted names, like Sourberry or Gauzeleak, while my wife and I sit puzzled at what could possibly be so wrong with the sweet sound of ‘Dander’.   That’s right, Dander.   My wife’s great uncle from Denmark, who passed away nearly…

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Finding Greatness in Junk (HYG,AMZN,XRT)

Finding Greatness in Junk (HYG,AMZN,XRT)   You don’t find too many great men these days.  Our guess is that there were a lot more at one time.   That’s not to say that there aren’t a lot of rich men, or powerful or influential men.  There are plenty of those.  There are a great many intelligent men, too.  And a whole cadre of those who possess abundant stores of knowledge and know-how in this field or that…   But greatness?   To our mind, greatness doesn’t reside in amassing fortunes or achieving military victories in far-flung lands, or in getting re-elected for a thirty-third term.  There’s a great deal to be said, of course, for those who achieve these things.  One might point to their determination, their creativity or ability to think strategically.  And there’s a good deal to be said for honoring those who get the best out of themselves, or see the potential in others and help them to exploit it.   But greatness, to our mind, resides elsewhere.   True greatness is a function of wisdom, and wisdom is an ethical matter.   By ‘ethical’, we don’t mean well-behaved, though it’s nice to see that quality in…

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Pin the Retail Donkey (AMZN,XRT,HD)

Pin the Retail Donkey (AMZN,XRT,HD)   We’re going to step out on a limb today and encourage you to consider the retail sales trade that we’re proffering hereunder.   It’s not an easy thing to buck the trend at a time when big name sellers are closing at their fastest pace ever all across this land, when companies like JC Penney and Macy’s and Sears are facing what could be their final breaths, and when traffic at malls across America appears to be drying up like a pack of seals stuck in a Saharan sirocco. Whither the American Shopper…?   There’s no question that online sales are taking a bite out of the bricks and mortar retail group, with companies like Amazon obviously reaping the lion’s share of the new business.   In fact, e-retailing as a whole is looking to expand by some 14% this year, according to most estimates (compared to 13.1% in 2016), while traditional ‘in-store’ sales are figured to grow at the same 1.5% rate they did last year.  Department stores, alluded to above, appear to be moving in static fashion, looking for a break wherever they can find one.   But it’s less than likely…

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What Tuesday Wrought (SPY,XRT)

What Tuesday Wrought (SPY,XRT)   Could it be…?   Has it happened…?   Are we now entering the post-Trump corrective phase…?   And will it presage a thoroughgoing purge of the market bulls…?   Are we now at THE crossroads?  The end of the line?  The selling moment par excellence?   IS IT ALL DOWNHILL FROM HERE!?   Read on, friends… and avail yourselves of any medications you may require to see yourself through, because the next fifteen minutes of your life could be positively thermo-pneumatic!  And we take no responsibility for any seizures or crying fits, be they large or small. Let’s look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 since it offers the worst technicals of the major market averages.   And we’ll preface our discussion of the chart with just a few words of introduction.   They go as follows –   First, Tuesday’s 1.24% decline on the S&P 500 was the first 1%+ drop on that index since before the election. That’s a five month wait for a phenomenon that historically occurs on a slightly more than weekly basis!   Second, the decline on the NASDAQ and DOW Industrials brought those two indexes to rest…

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Who’s the Genius? (XRT)

That’s right, friends!   Hugh’s the genius!   Earlier this week, fellow Normandy scribbler Hugh L. O’Haynew offered a downright genius call on the transports that not only nailed it in the following trading session, but now sets us up for an upside equity breakout that he also advised was forthcoming.   SOUND THE TRUMPETS!   RING THE MERRY BELLS OF REDEMPTION   All hail.  All hail!  GLORY, GLORY HALLEL-HUGH-YA! Love that knee bandage, sister.   Anyway, we note that Hugh’s call was all the more prescient for coming on a day and at a time when the rest of the market did PRECISELY NOTHING!   Fast asleep, friends.   That’s correct.  The transport breakout that he wrote of in this week’s Wall Street Elite letter (Transport Hi-Jinx) came on a day when the S&P 500 fell 0.01% and the NASDAQ rose 0.15%.  Call it a wasted day for the broad market.   Not so the trannies, though, which added a fat 1.5% on the day, as Delta, American and Southwest Airlines all surged, putting the Transport Average at 8059 and confirming a breakout above a 57 week declining trendline (in red, below). The leap also put the transports on…

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The Undecided Market (DIA,WMT,XRT)

It always used to puzzle us, how voters could be ‘undecided’ going into an election.  How they could say, ‘we’re going to wait and see how the debate turns out’, or ‘we’re not sure how our interests are going to be served under an enter name here presidency’.   What the sheet!?   How could someone be ‘undecided’?  For the last half century at least the policy differences between the two parties has been stark.  What the hell could a person want to wait for?  To see who dresses nicer?  Who has more wit or panache?  Whose stage manner is superior?  Again, what the freakin’ sheet!?   Undecided voters, we came to understand, were simply unprincipled people who blew with the wind and chose to vote according to the rules of Hollywood – who selected candidates according to star status, popularity levels, who their friends voted for, who the media admired, etc.   Until now. This election has seen such a firestorm of challenges to the status quo and to our traditional understandings of party platforms that if somehow Mr. Sanders were to take the Democratic nomination (yeah, yeah, we know, it’s a longshot – FBI indictment pending), we can’t…

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Who Woulda Figured? A Retail-Tech Connection (WMT,XRT)

Let’s take stock of the damage in equity markets thus far.   As we write, the S&P 500 is off its highs some 9%, the NASDAQ almost 12%, and the DOW is down 10%.   Those numbers aren’t encouraging, certainly, but when matched against the performance in China (– 40%) or the emerging markets overall (– 31%), they’re but spit on the sidewalk.   What’s worrisome, of course, is that globally the general trend of the markets is down. In what’s termed by technicians the ‘law of commonality’, we could shortly be witness to a pile-on effect, whereby everyone who hasn’t sold simply does because his neighbor has.   And if that, indeed, happens, we could also see continued, sustained selling for the intermediate term – call it anywhere between three and eighteen months. For the bulls, on the other hand, all the cards are on the table – they’re hoping that the current bounce will carry higher and farther than anyone thinks, set a few new highs hither and yon – in at least one or more important sectors – thereby signaling a break in the downtrend that has dominated equity markets for close to a year.   And…

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