The Lord Giveth… (QQQ,DIA,VOX,HYG,CBOE,KKR,FB)

The Lord Giveth… (QQQ,DIA,VOX,HYG,CBOE,KKR,FB)   It’s hard to find anything negative to say about a market that has been on an even-keeled, upward trajectory for the last eight years.   You can mock what underpins its strength, you can deride the foolishness of those who’ve made millions just buying and sitting put, and you can wail like a newborn over the fundamental and technical excesses that are sure (eventually) to rock the very foundations of the financial edifice and send the global economy off the edge of the planet. And eventually, we admit, you’ll be right.  The fun will come to an end.   But it’s far more likely to be a jagged up-and-down affair than the simple cliff-dive that most imagine.  We’re of the school that contends that a wild volatility will seize the market before the final top is in, sending it hithering and thithering in a manner that breaks every man Jack who has more than a few bucks invested in the equity amusement park of the next few years.   And a quick look at the charts of the major world indexes reveals that we might now be approaching our first fitful turn in that process….

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Stocks That Grow to the Sky (TREE,VOX)

Stocks That Grow to the Sky (TREE,VOX)   We want to take a moment to discuss that nastiest of all topics – indeed, the most contentious in all the financial world: INFLATION!   [Cue banging of gongs, montage of Soviet era labor camps, H-bombs blowing in Nevada and lots of Viet Nam era stills.] The reason for all the discord is that many want inflation, many more don’t, many see the corrupt nature by which it’s measured, others recognize the dangers of divergent wage and price inflation, and still others just can’t understand why prices have to rise at all.   Do they?   Good question, buttercup.  And we’re not sure we can answer it, except to say prices will always rise when the supply/demand calculus pushes them higher.  But as for the question of other, more structural reasons for inflation… well, you go talk to your local elected representative about that.   Inflation Will Burst Higher   Our goal today is to reiterate what we’ve already written repeatedly in this space for nearly a decade.  And that is, that as result of the unprecedented intervention in the markets and economy by the Federal Reserve and Treasury (not to mention…

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FREEWHEELIN’! (DIA,VOX,XLK,XLF,XLF)

FREEWHEELIN’! (DIA,VOX,XLK,XLF,XLF)   We didn’t create the world we live in, but we inherited it, and that leaves us with just two choices with which to deal with it.   On the one hand, we can opt out.  We can attempt to move away from the reality that exists and forge something new, perhaps with like-minded individuals, or alone if need be.  We may even be able to do it where we’re presently situated – there may be no reason to relocate whatsoever.   The other option is to work with what we’re given and attempt to make the best of a sorry or compromised, or even downright miserable predicament.   And so it is, too, with the financial world.   Consider –   We live at a time of unprecedented government intervention in financial markets, a phenomenon created by (among other things) a concerted, global money-printing drill that abandoned all semblance of restraint with the financial crisis of 2008/09.   Have a look – With the advent of Quantitative Easing the lid blew off, the Fed was fruitful and multiplied, and we entered a new era of falsity that continues to this day.   An Age of Lies  …

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Run for your life! Inflation! INFLATION! (VOX,XLK,SPY)

We’ve discussed it numerous times over the last five years, and it finally appears to be coming to pass. We’re referring, of course, to the ongoing efforts of the U.S. central bank (and others, most notably the European, Chinese, and Japanese CBs) along with our Treasury Department to coordinate a financial reality whereby inflation puts her evil stepsister, deflation, into a merciless choke hold.   And to that end, we’ve seen all manner of ZIRPs and JERKs and QEs (not to mention out-and-out buying of stocks and bonds), all orchestrated to get banks to start lending and Joe Q. Public to start spending.   Why?   Because it cannot be that the economy is left alone to work out its own misallocations in a natural way.   No, no.   We economic jeanyuses know better, particularly if we have advanced degrees and have written indecipherable papers on just how that inflationary intervention has to proceed.   Because if we stick our fingers in the pie in just the right way, and stir it up just so, and extract from it precisely X quantity of jam and lard, all the while smearing the crust with the stem cells of a recently…

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