The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)

The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)   For some time now, we’ve been kicking up a big to-do about how the current market has lost all sense of the fundamental and is being driven exclusively by sentiment and cash flows.   And there’s no gainsaying that as we approach the final innings of history’s greatest ever bull market, we’ll see ever more money making chase after equities as they swerve higher and lower, as volatility ratchets up like Norse stretch rack and indecision in the bond market creates powerful cash surges between equities and fixed income.   That said, we want to reassure you that we still believe the major indexes’ best days lie ahead – but…

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That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)

That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)   There are stats and there are stats.  And, of course, when the market is in the middle of a panic breakdown, all the facts fit to print are lugged out of the analyst valise in order to convince you of what’s to come. And here at Normandy, we’re really no different.  Regardless of how little we trust the mainstream, fundamental approach to investing in this era of absolute government intervention, we have to rely on something.  Coin-flipping went out at least a century ago in the stock buying game.   As we’ve stated repeatedly, the contest is now being played on the sentiment front – in large part – while…

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Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)

Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)   We’ll open today with a look at the dollar and a few comments that the White House has been making in relation thereto.   And we start like this –   Steve Mnuchin, the President’s Treasury Secretary was in Davos this week to laugh at the world’s poor and confabulate over how to keep things humming without too much acting out on the part of the hoi polloi.   And in the midst of it all he offered the following on the sinking American dollar – And that immediately sent the buck-sellers directly into action.  The Dollar Index tanked, adding shame to the already existing scorn, and creating a picture…

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DON’T LOOK BACK! (UUP,IYT)

DON’T LOOK BACK! (UUP,IYT)   We’re currently in the midst of an overbought rapture of retail investor effusion, one that will send markets unpredictably higher in the very near term before an inevitable stall brings it all to a halt.   At that point we’ll have to see what happens.   It could take a few days, a few weeks, or a bit longer, but there’s little chance it won’t occur.  The trajectory has been set, the momentum is building and the masses are enthralled. What’s less predictable is how the rest of the investment world will respond.  In particular, we’ll be looking to the bond market and select commodities for our cues, but equally…

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Metals. Now. (FCX,UUP,UNG)

Metals. Now. (FCX,UUP,UNG)   We’re going to take a broad survey of the commodities today because recent action in the ‘stuff’ class is looking bullish, and we believe we’ve identified a clever way to trade it.   But first to the background.   We start with the dollar.   As of this writing, the buck sits at its weakest level in a year and is threatening to plunge Alice-like into the nether realms if it loses but a rabbit’s hair more value.   In percentage terms, a mere 2% decline from current levels would put the dollar necrophiliacs into a rapturous frenzy of selling.   And to where she drops, nobody knows.   Have a…

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Financial Drone Strike! (NOC,DBC,JCP,LOW,SLV,UUP)

There’s been a great deal of press lately regarding a handful of tech companies and the outsized role they’ve played in goosing the market averages.   And, indeed, it’s the case that Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Facebook and Apple have all been climbing recently, and contributed in great measure to the success of the NASDAQ, not to mention the S&P 500 in the last fortnight.   But a look at breadth figures for the rest of the big caps shows that the big five are not alone; nearly all the index components have been pulling their weight. The percentage of S&P stocks trading above their 50 day moving averages, a rudimentary indicator of bullishness, climbed…

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Spring Cleaning (UUP,SLV)

Spring Cleaning (UUP,SLV)   Propagandists and sales and marketing professionals know the value of repeating the message ad nauseum.  They know that with enough time they’ll eventually crack through their audience’s cortex and implant themselves there for good.   There’s something about the human psyche, it seems (call it an inborn weakness), that eventually relents, and then wholeheartedly believes after the 650th repetition of “CLEANS WHILE IT DISINFECTS” that the product actually does what it says.   The marketing pros in the brokerage and mutual fund businesses are also aware of this, and the techniques they use are exactly the same. When we first started out in this business nearly thirty years ago, we experienced…

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The Finale (XLP,XLF,UUP)

Let’s review.   We’re now at the beginning of the final, stock market blowoff top, the one that will go down in history as the greatest and most spastic, bubbilicious equity buying frenzy of all time.   Forget the roaring twenties, forget the South Sea Bubble, forget Tulips and Go-Go and Nifty Fifty and the Singaporean Twin Ballerina Bubble of the mid seventeenth century – nothing will compare to what you’re about to see. Buy and hold?   Hard to tell, because we don’t know at this stage how long the rally will last.   Buy single stocks, an ETF, or an index?   Sure, if you want.  But again, the timing will be difficult…

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CONFIDENCE RETURNS! [MONEY FOLLOWS] (GS,GDX,IYT,FB,UUP)

Not even Donald Trump shoots from the hip like we do at Normandy.   You will not get any straighter answers delivered on things that matter, without all the blather and hype, as you do here.   And more than that, you get it with a dash of humor, too!   So count yourselves among the luckiest, and possibly richest sons’a’birches in the investment world.  And all thanks to us.  The planet’s wisest and humblest newsletter publishers. You’ll remember that some three weeks back we tipped you off regarding the market’s likeliest reaction to a Trump victory vs. a Hillary win.  We even drew a picture for you that the bigwigs in management decided to…

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Gulping Up the Silver (UUP,SLV,NFLX,FXI,DIA)

That’s it.  We’re in a downdraft.  A potentially short one, albeit, confined within a longer term uptrend.  But it’s a downdraft nonetheless.   Last Thursday, senior Normandy know it all, Matt McAbby, offered you a short term trade on the QQQs that’s worked out well.  Friday’s action saw the QUBES drop by better than one percent, and the setup still slightly favors a further decline.   We’ll have more to show-and-tell on short term market direction in a moment, but we want first to take an opportunity to discuss a few potential market-turning catalysts on the horizon.   Island Castaways   The first and most important item on the agenda is the upcoming vote on…

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