THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY)

THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY) OH. MY. GAWD!   In a development that’s caught nearly everyone off guard, a massive high pressure system recently sundered the normally quiescent Arctic ‘polar vortex’ in two!   It’s a little known, unique weather event that, according to meteorologists, could bring MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AMERICAN EAST COAST AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE WEST COAST AND CONTINENTAL EUROPE! Did you get that?   In the coming weeks, the weather may change due to this disruption of the normally static low pressure cell that sits over the Arctic!   And whaddaya know, U.K. natural gas contracts have already spiked some 3.5% in anticipation of the cold blast,…

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Angry Billionaire Implodes! (PFE,USO)

Angry Billionaire Implodes! (PFE,USO)   Many have asked us over the years to summarize in our own pithy way the true meaning of life and to mince no words in doing so.   But as we’re not yet accredited philosophers, we here at Normandy prefer to limit our ruminations to subjects we’re familiar with.  And that means money, brother – its acquisition and, at times, its loss.   So, in an effort to please the many who took pains to contact us on the matter, we hereunder offer the following, limited piece of useable wisdom.  Please commit it to memory –   The transience of affluence is caused by 1) an overabundance of opulence, and…

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Let’s Have an Oil Chat (USO)

Let’s Have an Oil Chat (USO)   It’s taken a heckuva long time, but the day has finally arrived.   After losing close to 60% of its value between July, 2014 and January, 2016, and falling below $40 a barrel, oil has now begun a move higher that we believe marks the end of its downtrend and very likely much higher prices over the short to intermediate term.   But before we get to the charts that illustrate the new reality, we’re going to digress briefly to discuss the fundamental backdrop that’s boosting oil prices the world over.   Bear with us.  It’ll take but a minute.   First up is OPEC member Venezuela, a…

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Robbing with Copper (FCX,DIA,IWM,USO)

We’re not the dragon slayers we once used to be.   Or thought we were…   We still get the odd piece of correspondence that congratulates us for decapitating some carpetbagger or snake oil purveyor on Wall Street, but on the whole, our life has taken a quieter turn, and though age has something to do with it, it’s more likely a matter of changing temperament than anything else.   And that means we’re not as apt to write the hit pieces we once did.  Knowing how to write doesn’t mean you know how to think.  And even though we generally like to show we can do both, it wasn’t always the case.   One…

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OIL HIGHER (USO,XLV,XLU)

There’s a lot to say and a trade to close, so let’s get right to it.   In the first place, the country is angry.  And nothing makes Americans angry like the thought of some privileged elite that arrogates to itself the right to decide things for them.  The original British colony, you’ll recall, was ousted on its keyster and left to fester like a busted oyster.  And for what?  Arrogance.  Thinking they had a right to determine things from afar.   Well, it’s clear today that Washington is the new London, and the self-proclaimed kings of Capitol Hill are neither wanted nor welcome, if the latest presidential primaries have anything to say on the…

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The Builders: Trump, China and the Depot (HD,XLP,XLY,XOM,USO)

When the FBI demanded access to Apple’s encryption technology to unlock the iPhones of the San Bernardino terrorists, we were disturbed.  As far as we were concerned, Apple’s refusal to empower an already intrusive surveillance state was commendable. But others saw it differently.   Donald Trump, for one.   Trump went on the offensive, saying we ought to use ‘common sense’ and give the government what they need to fight the bad guys, to know if there were accomplices, etc. And that would be a great thing – to catch the bad guys. All of them. And lock them up.   But there was something unsavory about Trump’s appeal and his further suggestion that we…

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Short Squeezes and Nipple Piercings (USO,FAS,BAC,GLD)

Oh, my!   We’re pushing the bullish story here, not – as some have averred – because we’re perma-bulls; we’re patently not. We’re not perma-anything.   We’re chart watchers. When the charts say buy, we buy; when they sell, we sell. And when the underlying monetary and fiscal reality is pushing the same story as the charts, then we have absolutely no problem piling on and encouraging one and all to join us.   Today, dear friends, the charts are bullish, the sea of money floating into the investment arena is bullish, and – one more important detail – we’re now experiencing a tremendous short covering rush that will only add to the momentum.  …

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Taking a Stab at Oil (XOM,USO,HD)

We’re in the middle of a bounce.   We don’t know how long or how high it will carry, so until we see genuine technical signs of a continued bull, we have to be guarded.   That said, we bulls still have a few key indicators on our side.   The first is sentiment, which is dreadful. No one is happy, the world looks increasingly dangerous, protest candidates are surging, and the last thing on the minds of Main Street investors is shoveling more of their savings into equities.   Fair enough. We track AAII sentiment numbers precisely for moments like these. We’re now in the pit of sentiment hell. It can’t get any worse….

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A Watched Pot Never Boils (USO)

Not just another useless piece of proverbial folk wisdom, friends; this one has some real cachet – and for market watchers, too.   In fact, consider it an iron-clad rule of investing for all traders at all times that when everyone is looking in one direction, right behind their backs something big is about to happen.   And not only that…   The very thing they’re so intent on gazing at… won’t do anything at all. That’s just the way it goes, Lilja.   And so it is today, when every broker’s trading screen has been configured to feature oil and China prominently. We can’t, in fact, remember a time in the last decade, when…

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Playing a Near Term Bounce (UPS,HD,USO,XLE,DIA,UCO,EWJ,HYT)

Before we look at a number of trades that came due with the January options expiration, just a quick word on the stealthy manner in which the market operates.   We say ‘stealthy’ as if the market actually had a mind of its own and some sort of character or personality, but it’s not actually the case. Well…   What is true, is that at any given moment the market takes on the personality of its participants, morphing into a being completely different than it was an hour or day or week before as the collective inputs of traders large and small, all their fears and desires and greed and loves and hates are amalgamated…

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