THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY)

THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY) OH. MY. GAWD!   In a development that’s caught nearly everyone off guard, a massive high pressure system recently sundered the normally quiescent Arctic ‘polar vortex’ in two!   It’s a little known, unique weather event that, according to meteorologists, could bring MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AMERICAN EAST COAST AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE WEST COAST AND CONTINENTAL EUROPE! Did you get that?   In the coming weeks, the weather may change due to this disruption of the normally static low pressure cell that sits over the Arctic!   And whaddaya know, U.K. natural gas contracts have already spiked some 3.5% in anticipation of the cold blast,…

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Metals. Now. (FCX,UUP,UNG)

Metals. Now. (FCX,UUP,UNG)   We’re going to take a broad survey of the commodities today because recent action in the ‘stuff’ class is looking bullish, and we believe we’ve identified a clever way to trade it.   But first to the background.   We start with the dollar.   As of this writing, the buck sits at its weakest level in a year and is threatening to plunge Alice-like into the nether realms if it loses but a rabbit’s hair more value.   In percentage terms, a mere 2% decline from current levels would put the dollar necrophiliacs into a rapturous frenzy of selling.   And to where she drops, nobody knows.   Have a…

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China Wants Trump’s Gas! (UNG,QQQ)

China Wants Trump’s Gas! (UNG,QQQ) Two weeks ago we issued a long term bullish call on natural gas, a sector that seems to endure a new shot-kacking every time we review its chart.   The damage, as we wrote in our May 25th letter, It’s perfectly Natural, began back in 2008, when gas prices melted down alongside stocks in what’s come to be known as the Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis.   Since that time, the United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE:UNG), a loose proxy for NYMEX Henry Hub, front-month contracts, has been dragging its arse along the rocky bottom, bumping up here and there when the silica got a bit sharp, but basically going nowhere.  …

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It’s Perfectly Natural (UNG)

It’s Perfectly Natural (UNG)   We’re starting to like the look of the commodities.  They have a renewed feeling of strength, and the technical foundations that underpin many of the more popularly traded materials are also shaping up strongly.   Perhaps most importantly, though, it’s the precious metals, whose movements have historically led the broader commodity pack, and which now look as resilient as they ever have, that offer the best hope for this sorry-ass asset class that’s been in decline for the last half decade.   Below are the daily charts for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV), reasonable proxies for their respective metals. The chart for…

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Royalty’s Ups and Downs (FNV.WT.A,UNG,GDXJ,NVDA)

A quick digression.   We were quite surprised that CNBC’s political reporter, John Harwood, would risk knowing what Americans really thought about the issue of Russian spies (a truth already clear to us little people) by Tweeting out the following challenge to his followers – In the eyes of the American public, Junior wanted know who was more trustworthy: Wikileaks or the intelligence community.  The above results arrived near the beginning of his campaign, but by the end, well… suffice to say that a funny thing happened on the way to the mainstream media disillusion slap-fest.   WHOOPS!   You can be sure that Mr. Harwood didn’t expect the answer he got, being himself a…

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2017 – It’s All Good (UNG,GDXJ)

Does it get any better?   Sure, we may see a short-lived selling wave now that this election nonsense is behind us – a chance for the bigshots to take some profits before year end and try to buy back in at cheaper prices in the New Year.   But it’s still good.   How so?   First, and most importantly, we’ve now begun the final wave up for the bull market that began in 1980, or, if you prefer, in 1932 – there’s no longer any question about it.  The ultimate rocket-shot higher before Kondratieff’s winter finally descends upon us like a Siberian tiger, is here. And the signs are everywhere –   Consider…

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Put on Your Parkas, Gang! (UNG, DIA, DXY)

Hang on, brothers. The pace is picking up. And because of that, we’re reminding you of a couple of ironclad laws of investing to help see you through the journey. Back on October 23rd we wrote a letter called The Slide is Complete, in which we argued that a Dow Theory ‘Buy’ signal was imminent and markets would steam ahead as soon as an official confirmation was registered. And it didn’t take long. Sure enough, since the Dow bottomed last month at 15,850, the index climbed a whopping 12%, registering an all-time closing high on Tuesday of this week at 17,735. The NASDAQ is up almost 15%, and bullish sentiment, according to the American Association…

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Disaster Strikes the Hunter! (SLV, UNG, USO)

Gotta lead off today with a number of trades that have either closed with October’s options expiry or that we have to consider closing immediately. So without delay… We start with a trade opened back on June 24th in a letter called Pumping Oil and Gas. There, we urged you consider a long position on natural gas and extreme caution with respect to oil. As it turns out, our latter insight was dead on. Crude oil peaked precisely as we went to press and summarily tumbled by over 20% to its recent lows at roughly $79. Not so for gas. Natural Gas, as represented by the U.S. Natural Gas ETF (NYSE:UNG) backed off mightily, contrary…

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Iconoclastic Fury! (UNG, GDX)

You don’t read McAbby because he’s some kind of millennial wuss. You don’t read him because he hands you a line and makes you feel good about yourself, or because he holds your hand through a losing trade that you believe will eventually turn around and deliver some long-dreamed-of payday that will likely never come. McAbby is no feel-good newsletter writer who flatters and connives and wedges open a place in your weak hearts and soft minds the better to manipulate you and sell you some bag of toys. Oh, please, friends. Enough. We pride ourselves at Bourbon and Bayonets on being the wildest, off-the-wall financial and market commentary on the net – that’s still…

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Short Term/Long Term on Europe (EWG, USO, UNG, GLD)

Sometimes we put on a trade that takes us months, if not a year or more to cash in on. And sometimes it happens immediately. We usually aim to be open and shut anywhere between one to three months from initiating, but as with life itself, there are always surprises. And so it is this week, as we plan to cash in on two trades that we initiated in just the last fortnight. Or, to be more precise, one and a half trades. Great hair. Let us explain. Trade #1 Two weeks ago in a letter called Strangling the Energy Market we urged you to sell strangles on both the United States Oil Fund ETF…

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