The Wisdom of Solomon (TLT)

The Wisdom of Solomon (TLT)   You’ve been listening to the car rattle and shake for some time now, but it still moves OK, and everyone tells you what a fine looking beast she is and how she’s reliable and all, so you let it go.   But the noise is bothering the wife a little too much to maintain peace in the castle, so in lieu of letting her fears fester and risk an outright coup, you take her to the shop.   The car, that is.   You shimmy on down to the local industrial zone, and, as usual, Sonny is all smiles and handshakes, the black under his fingernails a tad worrisome…

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The Problem With Flying (XLP,DIA,TLT)

The Problem With Flying (XLP,DIA,TLT)   There are a few things that kinda trouble us these days, but none so much as the technical picture of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, whose daily, weekly and monthly charts are all now spinning through lala-ville, overbought every darn j-candle of them, and presenting the very picture of a dead man walking.   So it is.   And we have to acknowledge the reality.   But before we turn to the actual charts, know that neither the S&P 500 nor the NASDAQ are as bloated as the Dow.  Know, too, that the Dow Transports and the rest of the world’s major market indices are also nowhere near the…

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NORTH KOREA PIZZERIA BALLERINA SHOP IKEA (TLT)

NORTH KOREA PIZZERIA BALLERINA SHOP IKEA (TLT)   “Turn ‘em into North Tortilla” – Rear Admiral James Evans Jr., 14th Naval District (Pacific Fleet)   There will be a great deal of tension and market volatility in the days leading to a resolution of the current impasse with North Korea, and of course, we all hope for a peaceful and just outcome without resort to force.   That said, both the rhetoric and activity of the last few days have been increasingly explosive, and it’s our opinion that a military clash of some variety is presently in the making.   Whether it be limited or ‘overwhelming’ – as one senior cabinet appointee proclaimed – it…

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ReVEnGe! (TLT,SPY)

There’s not a whole lot in this world that gives you the yummy-tum as watching an enemy go down.   Slowly.   When the come-uppance is cold and unexpected, when it comes after a significant wait, and is delivered gently, it’s as tasty as it comes.   So we read and always believed to be true, but it wasn’t until we tasted the sweet sauce of the swallows returning to Capistrano that we understood the bone rattling truth of the vengeance concept. We’re referring, of course, to the weekend story of the swindler from Boston who tried one trick too many, was too clever by half, and fell into a trap laid for him by…

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Finally! A Financial Ever-gasm! (AAPL,TLT,SPY)

Finally! A Financial Ever-gasm! (AAPL,TLT,SPY)   Is this it?   Like the long sought after Fountain of Youth, have we finally managed to create financial perfection?  A means by which wealth never dies?  A device by which it only grows and grows?  Where profits are guaranteed in a never ending advance toward greenback bliss?   Could it be that there is, indeed, a place where glad tidings and robust, good cheer flow in swaying amplitude?  Where the champagne flows, the laughter spills and the bad guys are routed regularly?  Where the Leafs finally win the Stanley Cup? Could it be?   There are many who point to signs that the Trump Rally is coming to…

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Running Numbers (XLK,IYH,GS,FCX,FAS,C,TLT,HYG,AXP,V,RSX)

We’ve got so many trades come due, there’s little time for anything else!   Let’s get right to it.   First, we’ll take a look at a trade we launched over a year ago, on the 12th of November, 2015, in a letter called The Sachs of a McMorAno.   There, we urged you to dump the commodities and move hard and bullish on the financials, using two stock bigshots to play the trade, Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).   The trade recommended you purchase the January 2017 FCX 10 PUT for $3.00 and sell the GS January 2017 GS 150 PUT for $4.95.  Total credit on the trade was a fat $1.95….

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Shall We Take a Dip? (SPY,TLT,GOOGL,TREE)

We’re at something of a crossroads in the market today, and not because the battle of bulls and bears has reached a stalemate.  Those traditional crossings are more easily navigated than our current predicament.  With them, there’s still a set of lights that keeps traffic moving in a more or less orderly fashion.   What prevails today, rather, is an intersection that has neither clearly marked lanes nor working lights.  That is to say, everyone is either confused or uncertain and gazing over his shoulder at what the next guy’s doing.   It’s not a comforting situation.  And even though analysts and strategists and plain old traders like us are looking at the data and…

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The Madness of Trade Liquidation (TLT,AAPL,OLN,PM,MO,GDX,IYT)

You’ll have to forgive our French, but there are several sectors of the market that are taking an absolute ass-kicking at the moment, and we’d be completely remiss if we didn’t pony up and say something about them.   The first is the long bond – the entire Treasury complex, in fact – that’s been given a vicious stomping of late; its worst takedown in a year and a half.  But when you throw in the technical damage done, we can’t remember seeing a month this bloody since the meltdown of 2009 gutted close to 30% from Treasury investors’ pockets.   The second is the precious metals, including gold, silver and the miners, all of…

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When Things Get Twisted Down Below (HYG,SPY,TLT)

Amidst all the brawling and tussling leading up to the election, several important items were pushed to the back burner that now require our attention.   But before we get to them, a quick word on the new president-elect, the market reaction to it, Whoopi Goldberg and Barbara Streisand.   Sound and Fury…   In the first place, Donald Trump won, apparently fair and square, and we wish him lots of luck trying to fix the deep, systemic problems that plague America’s financial system (snicker, snicker).  We really do.  It won’t be easy.   Second, we note that the market selloff was fast in coming.  Overnight, Dow futures registered a 1000 point loss.  That number…

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Let the Risk/Inflation Rally Commence! (SPY,TLT)

The final phase is upon us.   And within a few weeks, we’ll be witness to one of the greatest underwritings of risk the human species has ever known.   Nor will it be fun.   Unless you’re a bit twisted. Be prepared to watch men jump from heights and expect to fly.  Watch them attempt to match strength and wits against the wildest of caged animals.  See, as they roll the dice of a life of prudence and surety against fortune’s wheel of chance, grinning all the while, a glass of bourbon in hand.   Oh-boy!-oh-boy!-oh-boy! …   It’s a’coming. Rudyard Kipling’s poem, “If,” spoke of the passage to manhood and the exceptional mental…

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