The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)

The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)   For some time now, we’ve been kicking up a big to-do about how the current market has lost all sense of the fundamental and is being driven exclusively by sentiment and cash flows.   And there’s no gainsaying that as we approach the final innings of history’s greatest ever bull market, we’ll see ever more money making chase after equities as they swerve higher and lower, as volatility ratchets up like Norse stretch rack and indecision in the bond market creates powerful cash surges between equities and fixed income.   That said, we want to reassure you that we still believe the major indexes’ best days lie ahead – but…

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THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY)

THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY) OH. MY. GAWD!   In a development that’s caught nearly everyone off guard, a massive high pressure system recently sundered the normally quiescent Arctic ‘polar vortex’ in two!   It’s a little known, unique weather event that, according to meteorologists, could bring MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AMERICAN EAST COAST AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE WEST COAST AND CONTINENTAL EUROPE! Did you get that?   In the coming weeks, the weather may change due to this disruption of the normally static low pressure cell that sits over the Arctic!   And whaddaya know, U.K. natural gas contracts have already spiked some 3.5% in anticipation of the cold blast,…

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Phoenix Envy (SPY)

Phoenix Envy (SPY)   The market will move in the direction the majority least expect, for a duration that no one can predict, reversing precisely at a time that the greatest number are blindsided.   Or as a wise investor once wrote, “The market’s raison d’etre is to reach as deeply as possible into the pockets of average investors and empty them.” It’s for that reason that professional investors developed tools to protect themselves.   And one of those is the ‘moving average’.   Here at Normandy, we use a proprietary selection of moving averages that have often raised eyebrows, but we use them for a simple reason: they work.   After settling on them…

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Getting Carried Away (SPY,IEF,PFE)

Getting Carried Away (SPY,IEF,PFE)   There’s a concept in statistics that’s regularly applied to markets called ‘mean reversion’.  It’s a rather simple idea, that anytime numbers get too far stretched from their long-term historical norms – either too high or too low – they eventually snap back.   And it has proven itself long enough to be relied upon by market analysts for at least a half century.  Simply put – a market is in danger of a whiplash reversal when it strays too far from its mean.  Forewarned is forearmed. The only problem with the concept is that no one can know what any security’s ultimate breaking point is.   That is, how long…

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WAR! All the Latest Bellicosity and Bombast! (SPY,C,FB,DIA,IYT)

WAR! All the Latest Bellicosity and Bombast! (SPY,C,FB,DIA,IYT)   North Korea, friends.  It’s all about North Korea.   What do we mean?   Well, in the first place, you can expect that the news cycle is about to be dominated by that nuclear-tipped maniac, Kim Jong Un and his merry band of scribblers for the next couple of months, as the move toward a full scale erasure of the wicked Northern Kingdom is hatched, plotted and executed.   Already we see signs that, at the very least, the stage is being set for a negotiating turn of the screw the likes of which haven’t been seen since Bold Boy Arnold threatened the entire stickball crew…

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Things We Like. And Things We Don’t (QQQ,AAPL,PIR,SPY,DIA,AOBC)

Things We Like.  And Things We Don’t (QQQ,AAPL,PIR,SPY,DIA,AOBC)   Ed. Note – the devastation in Florida and across the southwest warrants a word of hope and encouragement for all those who experienced the wrath of Irma … Hang tough, friends.  And be good to each other.   Our thoughts are with you.   There are currently a number of discordant trends in the market that are worthy of our scrutiny, and that we believe point to precisely where we’re positioned in this longest and most powerful of all bull markets.   We hope that a firm understanding of that position will also reveal to us an appropriate trade for the week, as unlikely as it may…

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Le Plus Que Ca Change… (HD,SPY)

Le Plus Que Ca Change… (HD,SPY)   Bull and bear markets can be defined in a great many ways, but the simplest and most direct (and correct) definition is, naturally, our own: And there you have it.   Not much more need be said.   With what appears to be a war looming in the Far East with North Korea (and maybe China), in the Middle East with Syria (and maybe Russia), at home in Berkeley for safe space, on airplanes that don’t have enough space, and quite possibly in outer space for new tourist destination space, there’s every reason to believe that a bear market is coming.   What the…!?   It’s all rather…

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ReVEnGe! (TLT,SPY)

There’s not a whole lot in this world that gives you the yummy-tum as watching an enemy go down.   Slowly.   When the come-uppance is cold and unexpected, when it comes after a significant wait, and is delivered gently, it’s as tasty as it comes.   So we read and always believed to be true, but it wasn’t until we tasted the sweet sauce of the swallows returning to Capistrano that we understood the bone rattling truth of the vengeance concept. We’re referring, of course, to the weekend story of the swindler from Boston who tried one trick too many, was too clever by half, and fell into a trap laid for him by…

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What Tuesday Wrought (SPY,XRT)

What Tuesday Wrought (SPY,XRT)   Could it be…?   Has it happened…?   Are we now entering the post-Trump corrective phase…?   And will it presage a thoroughgoing purge of the market bulls…?   Are we now at THE crossroads?  The end of the line?  The selling moment par excellence?   IS IT ALL DOWNHILL FROM HERE!?   Read on, friends… and avail yourselves of any medications you may require to see yourself through, because the next fifteen minutes of your life could be positively thermo-pneumatic!  And we take no responsibility for any seizures or crying fits, be they large or small. Let’s look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 since it offers…

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Finally! A Financial Ever-gasm! (AAPL,TLT,SPY)

Finally! A Financial Ever-gasm! (AAPL,TLT,SPY)   Is this it?   Like the long sought after Fountain of Youth, have we finally managed to create financial perfection?  A means by which wealth never dies?  A device by which it only grows and grows?  Where profits are guaranteed in a never ending advance toward greenback bliss?   Could it be that there is, indeed, a place where glad tidings and robust, good cheer flow in swaying amplitude?  Where the champagne flows, the laughter spills and the bad guys are routed regularly?  Where the Leafs finally win the Stanley Cup? Could it be?   There are many who point to signs that the Trump Rally is coming to…

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