That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)

That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)   There are stats and there are stats.  And, of course, when the market is in the middle of a panic breakdown, all the facts fit to print are lugged out of the analyst valise in order to convince you of what’s to come. And here at Normandy, we’re really no different.  Regardless of how little we trust the mainstream, fundamental approach to investing in this era of absolute government intervention, we have to rely on something.  Coin-flipping went out at least a century ago in the stock buying game.   As we’ve stated repeatedly, the contest is now being played on the sentiment front – in large part – while…

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DON’T LOOK BACK! (UUP,IYT)

DON’T LOOK BACK! (UUP,IYT)   We’re currently in the midst of an overbought rapture of retail investor effusion, one that will send markets unpredictably higher in the very near term before an inevitable stall brings it all to a halt.   At that point we’ll have to see what happens.   It could take a few days, a few weeks, or a bit longer, but there’s little chance it won’t occur.  The trajectory has been set, the momentum is building and the masses are enthralled. What’s less predictable is how the rest of the investment world will respond.  In particular, we’ll be looking to the bond market and select commodities for our cues, but equally…

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WAR! All the Latest Bellicosity and Bombast! (SPY,C,FB,DIA,IYT)

WAR! All the Latest Bellicosity and Bombast! (SPY,C,FB,DIA,IYT)   North Korea, friends.  It’s all about North Korea.   What do we mean?   Well, in the first place, you can expect that the news cycle is about to be dominated by that nuclear-tipped maniac, Kim Jong Un and his merry band of scribblers for the next couple of months, as the move toward a full scale erasure of the wicked Northern Kingdom is hatched, plotted and executed.   Already we see signs that, at the very least, the stage is being set for a negotiating turn of the screw the likes of which haven’t been seen since Bold Boy Arnold threatened the entire stickball crew…

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ICARUS ALTITUDES (IYT,DIA,FAS)

ICARUS ALTITUDES (IYT,DIA,FAS)   Everyone wants to fly.  Everyone wants to be a spaceman and soar to the heavens, free from the shackles of this mortal coil.   Look at Playboy Branson of Virgin Airlines fame, look at Amazon’s Bald Bezos, look at Elon Musk from the Tesla boondoggle, and you’ll understand that the rich and famous no longer believe that flying across the ocean on a private jet is chic.  Today’s vogue travel plan has to involve oxygen tanks and space suits. How it all turns out is anyone’s guess.  Sure, it could be like Apollo 11.  Or, it could end up like another Kim Jong Un flop that blows up as it leaves…

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The CAT Came Back (CAT,GS,DIA,IYT)

The CAT Came Back (CAT,GS,DIA,IYT)   It’s not easy to measure the impact geo-political events will have on markets.  Indeed, most headline-grabbing happenings – including live fire incidents between sovereign nations – end up having a negligible effect on securities prices.   That said, if the fear that a major conflagration might erupt captures traders’ imaginations, then nothing will stop even the coldest hands from divesting themselves of everything in their portfolios save cold, hard cash. The current developing conflict in the Persian Gulf between Qatar, on the one side, and a group of powerful Arab nations on the other (including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE and Egypt), has an ominous ring to it, and no…

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Theory and Practice (DIA,IYT)

Theory and Practice (DIA,IYT)   It was all spelled out some eighty years ago, by a little known, London-based equity analyst who wrote, The fellow lived and traded through a great many financial ups and downs, including two global military conflagrations and several cataclysmic economic down-cycles that sundered both the U.K. and global economies.  But the above quotation was made with respect to the RISE in stocks in the late 1920’s!   That’s right.  It was when the bull market was still hot, and the push to all-time highs on the Dow was feeding the ‘roaring’ descriptor of the 1920’s that our analyst Cornelius penned these words.   And now we’ve come full circle.  …

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The Madness of Trade Liquidation (TLT,AAPL,OLN,PM,MO,GDX,IYT)

You’ll have to forgive our French, but there are several sectors of the market that are taking an absolute ass-kicking at the moment, and we’d be completely remiss if we didn’t pony up and say something about them.   The first is the long bond – the entire Treasury complex, in fact – that’s been given a vicious stomping of late; its worst takedown in a year and a half.  But when you throw in the technical damage done, we can’t remember seeing a month this bloody since the meltdown of 2009 gutted close to 30% from Treasury investors’ pockets.   The second is the precious metals, including gold, silver and the miners, all of…

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CONFIDENCE RETURNS! [MONEY FOLLOWS] (GS,GDX,IYT,FB,UUP)

Not even Donald Trump shoots from the hip like we do at Normandy.   You will not get any straighter answers delivered on things that matter, without all the blather and hype, as you do here.   And more than that, you get it with a dash of humor, too!   So count yourselves among the luckiest, and possibly richest sons’a’birches in the investment world.  And all thanks to us.  The planet’s wisest and humblest newsletter publishers. You’ll remember that some three weeks back we tipped you off regarding the market’s likeliest reaction to a Trump victory vs. a Hillary win.  We even drew a picture for you that the bigwigs in management decided to…

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Hop on Your Boxcar, Willie! (IYT)

Dow Theory is the oldest of the technical approaches to market analysis – in the western world, anyway.  And we like it, even though its purpose is limited to determining whether the market is in a secular bull or bear trend.   To that end, it’s helpful for traders as a first-stop compass of sorts, a means of gathering one’s bearings, determining whether the prevailing winds are blowing north or south.   And if we mean to be successful at our trade, we sailors on the equity tides must always keep an eye on the Dow Industrials and Transports, as it’s upon these two indexes that the entire system is based.   We’re not going…

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Transport Hi-Jinx! (IYT)

There are a number of important, broad market developments underway, and we’re going to use today’s letter to draw your attention to them.   The first is found in the bond market, where the divergence between the price of the riskiest instruments is running entirely at odds with that of the safest. The second involves the relationship between the U.S. Dollar and the commodities complex, an inter-market comparison that has a number of important ramifications for market watchers. And finally, we take a look at the transport sector, an index that has important stand-alone value for those attempting to understand market direction.   Taken together, we hope our analysis of the above three items will…

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