Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)

Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)   The local authorities in my city have just notified me that my newborn son’s name is  not acceptable to them, and that I’m going to have to change it.   If ever there were a case of government overreach, this is it.   They’ve informed me that in order to keep the moniker that I’ve longed to give him, I’ll have to go to the courthouse on my own time and at my own expense to have the child’s name officially registered before a judge.   If, of course, the judge agrees. In this day and I age, there’s no shortage of asininity in the world.  I can be…

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NORMANDY’s North Korean Missile Defense Issue (BUD,GS)

NORMANDY’s North Korean Missile Defense Issue (BUD,GS)   Now, the United States is a powerful nation, certainly if one measures power in terms of military hardware and training.  Whether and when to use that power is a separate question that we’re not going to address here.   What we would like to consider today is a potential conflict with North Korea and the trading possibilities that develop from it.  As crass as that may sound, it happens to be our job, and if stocks are going to move either before or after that eventuality, paying subscribers want to know. Investing is about making money.  It has nothing to do with raising children properly or feeding…

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The CAT Came Back (CAT,GS,DIA,IYT)

The CAT Came Back (CAT,GS,DIA,IYT)   It’s not easy to measure the impact geo-political events will have on markets.  Indeed, most headline-grabbing happenings – including live fire incidents between sovereign nations – end up having a negligible effect on securities prices.   That said, if the fear that a major conflagration might erupt captures traders’ imaginations, then nothing will stop even the coldest hands from divesting themselves of everything in their portfolios save cold, hard cash. The current developing conflict in the Persian Gulf between Qatar, on the one side, and a group of powerful Arab nations on the other (including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE and Egypt), has an ominous ring to it, and no…

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THE DREADFUL ANXIETY PANIC SHOW! (UIS,GS)

THE DREADFUL ANXIETY PANIC SHOW! (UIS,GS)   We’ve commented several times in this space on the inglorious use of sedatives and anti-depressants that has overtaken such an alarmingly large segment of our population.   At last count, we reported that the U.S. was the global leader in prescribing such medications, and the stats still bear it out.   Have a look – We can understand the melancholy-stricken Arctic Isle of Ice requiring drugs (now in second place, behind us); heck, the darned place is pitch black for most of the year.  And sunlight, we know, is a requisite component of good mental health.   But the U.S.?   There are a great many reasons to…

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How You Feelin’? (HYG,GS,GM)

It’s rare that we see the sun shining so brightly in the middle of February.   For stocks, that is.   In fact, can you name a time in the last ten years when a) we’d reached all-time highs in the indexes, b) consumer confidence levels were this robust, c) institutional investors were all-in, d) business confidence and homebuilder sentiment looked so rosy, e) emerging markets, like a horde of thunderous elephants, had just broken higher after eighteen months in the doldrums, and f) a stack of S&P 500 firms (36 of them – see below) just cracked through resistance into record territory?   It would be hard. Does that mean we’re living in the…

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Running Numbers (XLK,IYH,GS,FCX,FAS,C,TLT,HYG,AXP,V,RSX)

We’ve got so many trades come due, there’s little time for anything else!   Let’s get right to it.   First, we’ll take a look at a trade we launched over a year ago, on the 12th of November, 2015, in a letter called The Sachs of a McMorAno.   There, we urged you to dump the commodities and move hard and bullish on the financials, using two stock bigshots to play the trade, Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).   The trade recommended you purchase the January 2017 FCX 10 PUT for $3.00 and sell the GS January 2017 GS 150 PUT for $4.95.  Total credit on the trade was a fat $1.95….

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Commodity Resurrection (KOL,GLD,GS,XLP,XLF)

Commodity Resurrection (KOL,GLD,GS,XLP,XLF)   The process has taken a while to unfold and may require another few weeks to gather momentum, but there’s no longer any doubt.   Grab some more popcorn and licorice.  The commodity horror show is winding to a close. Before we get there, however, we have three trades to close out, with a nice, net take-home for the trio.   Let’s start with our October 11th initiative from a letter called Multiples, Expanding Multiples and the Energy Spectrum.  In that missive we recommended you buy one KOL January 12 PUT for $0.90 and sell one KOL January 12 CALL for $0.85.  Total debit on the trade was $0.05.   Unfortunately, the…

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Becoming an Independent Equity Trader – I (GS)

Becoming an Independent Equity Trader – I (GS2) While the advantages of a life of financial independence cannot be gainsaid by anyone, there are certainly ‘headwinds’ that anyone who aspires to such a lifestyle should be aware of.  Indeed, folks who aspire to any sort of independence – be it energy or nutritive or potable independence – should be aware that they’re likely to encounter someone in some government office somewhere who will take umbrage at the very gall involved in not wanting to be reliant on their political overlords.   There are countless examples.   Not so long ago we read a story of a family whose wood stove was rendered illegal by county…

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Now Underway: Massive Market Fake-out! (GLD,GS)

It’s ridiculous.   Could it get any more ridiculous?   Maybe.   But if it does, we’re going to have to throw in the towel and admit that the tools we’ve grown used to employing over the last several decades are simply no longer of any value.   It will be a sad day, indeed – if it ever comes to that. We’re talking about the exaggerated lift we’ve seen in quite a number of stocks since the election of Donald Trump as president.  The indexes have taken off higher in a manner that continues to astound even the most veteran observers.   Take for example just two stocks – the Dow Jones Transportation Index…

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Financial Sector Mayhem: Buying Panic! Selling Panic! (GS)

Simply amazing.   After we were told that a Trump presidency would sink the markets, destroy relations with longstanding allies, foment distrust and enmity with Mexicans, Canadians, Chinese, Japanese, and nearly every other foreign power out there, start trade wars, unleash civil unrest and crush the world’s last remaining hopes… precisely the opposite has happened.   It appears that everyone is now lining up to kiss the godfather’s ring.   We won’t outline the entire host of predictions offered by the mainstream media that fell afoul of reality, but we do offer one, brief item and a picture.   The ‘item’ comes by way of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Analyst Index, a survey of…

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