We’re All Gonna Die! (XLK,GM,F)

We’re All Gonna Die! (XLK,GM,F)   Just a moment to recap exactly where we are and how we got here.   To begin, our bull market began in March, 2009 and, despite the odd shimmy and shake, it continues apace, spurred ever higher by the machinations of a giddy central bank that refuses to take bear for an answer. This past fall, with the election of Snidely Whiplash, the market kicked into overdrive, beginning what we believe is the final blowoff top to the bull that began in either 2009, 1981 or 1933, depending upon how cataclysmic your worldview.   But that’s for another time.   Today, we find ourselves at a crossroads.  Not a…

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Dancing in Detroit (F,GM,HYG)

Dancing in Detroit (F,GM,HYG) What’s more American than a monster truck hoedown that pits a Ford F-150 against a Chevy Silverado.  (Apologies to Ram fans, of course.)   American carmakers are still a force to be reckoned with 100 years after Mr. Ford’s assembly line thrust Detroit into the center of the industrial world.   And though we may be at the dawning of the electric age for vehicles, Ford and GM still have market caps that come close to $50 billion.   Why?   Because they sell a whale of cars.   A look at the chart below offers an idea of the types of numbers on offer from both companies. A company that…

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How You Feelin’? (HYG,GS,GM)

It’s rare that we see the sun shining so brightly in the middle of February.   For stocks, that is.   In fact, can you name a time in the last ten years when a) we’d reached all-time highs in the indexes, b) consumer confidence levels were this robust, c) institutional investors were all-in, d) business confidence and homebuilder sentiment looked so rosy, e) emerging markets, like a horde of thunderous elephants, had just broken higher after eighteen months in the doldrums, and f) a stack of S&P 500 firms (36 of them – see below) just cracked through resistance into record territory?   It would be hard. Does that mean we’re living in the…

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Breaking: Transgender NYSE Floor Trader Charged with Self-Rape! (GM,HD)

Breaking: Transgender NYSE Floor Trader Charged with Self-Rape! (GM,HD) Sometimes you get hit with a single news item or piece of data that literally knocks you off your feet.   It’s unnerving, to put it mildly, because over time one gets used to the sanguine moves to and fro in the regular series that one examines.   And then whammo!   We had a day like that yesterday when the NFIB released its small business optimism survey, and we were thrown to the mat like “Killer” Kowalski in his title match against “Mad Dog” Vachon back in 1978.   We were there at the old Maple Leaf Gardens when it happened, and no kidding, it…

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Sell Everything! (SPY,GDXJ,GLD,TSLA,GM)

We had a very strong sell day on Friday, and much of the ink that was spilled over the following days was dedicated to convincing us that the blood is only beginning to flow.   But is it really time to break out the cautery?  Grab the gauze box and squeeze the wound?   Time to throw on some cayenne pepper, maybe?   Ho, ho…! MY. GAWD.   Before we get to the answer, consider some arguments in favor of the continued grand selloff hypothesis –   Investor Complacency   Some swear by it, but we don’t see it, frankly.  The AAII numbers that we watch show a very frightened Ma and Pa investing cohort…

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System Signals Silver Sale (SLV,GLD,XAU,TSLA,GM,MSFT)

There are all sorts of trading systems out there.   Some old-timers swear by the Graham and Dodd fundamental model, that tells you to buy them when P/E ratios and dividend yields are sparkling and dump them once the ratios are no longer competitive.   Others will tell you that’s balderdash, and only technical analysis can produce for you winning trades over the long haul.   There are those who swear by cycle analysis, point and Figure charting and Elliott wave theory.  Some adhere exclusively to Dow Theory. And still more go in for Gann triangles and Fibonacci retracements.  And believe it or not, some have even made consistent money trading the interplanetary orbitals of…

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Imminent Inter-Galactic Planetary Barrage! (TSLA,GM)

It’s getting a whole lot of coverage these days, so folks are beginning to wonder if it’s actually something to worry about.   The issue of the infamous ‘Planet 9’ or ‘Planet X’ or ‘Nibiru’ has captured the imagination of doomsayers and conspiracy theorists for decades… but now Wall Street?   Indeed, it’s so.   A number of anonymous strategists and directors from some of the biggest corporate entities on the street recently formed a group called “Renegade Prophets” that issues fortnightly press releases commenting on the approach of the star (or planet, or whatever it is), including photographs and advice to investors about how best to survive the inevitable impact of the nebulon comet-rock……

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U.S. auto sales up (GM), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) settles lawsuit and Oil hits new lows.

Markets were heading lower on Monday after U.S. auto sales data was released for the last month of 2014. General Motors (GM) surpassed expectations with a 19% gain to a total of 274,483. Pickup-truck sales reached 87,000, which brought the company’s total sales for the year to 2.9 million. This also marked the strongest December on record for the automaker in seven years. Ford (F) announced that their sales were up 1.2%, to a total of 220,671. The company partially attributed the lower data to smaller-than-expected sales to rental companies and fewer supplies of their top-selling F-150 pickup. In total for the year, Ford reported sales of 2.5 million, down 1% from 2013. Nissan Motor C….

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Construction spending down, ISM activity lower and General Motors (GM) announces another recall

Markets were heading higher after construction spending dropped in November. The Commerce Department announced that U.S. construction spending fell unexpectedly by 0.3% to a total annual rate of $975 billion. This marks the first decline for the sector since June. There was an upward revision of October’s data to show a 1.2% increase instead of the previously reported 1.1% increase. The drop was not in line with the projected 0.3% gain economists’ were expecting. The fall was partially attributed to the government withdrawing spending by 1.7%. When compared with last year, spending was still up 2.4%. Anika Kahn, a senior economist with Wells Fargo, said, “As the labor market continues to show improvement and wages increase,…

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Existing home sales dip, General Motors (GM) claims rise and gas prices hit five and a half year low

Markets were heading higher on Monday after existing home sales slipped in November. The National Association of Realtors announced that home sales hit a six-month low last month following two back-to-back months of gains. Sales fell 6.1% to an annual rate of 4.93 million units in November. Despite the large tumble last month, analysts are suggesting that this is not signaling trend. However, it is partially attributed to shrinking inventories, which also hit an 8-month low level last month. Existing home sales are up 2.1% over this time last year. Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale, said, “The recovery in housing remains slow. I don’t think it’s really an indication that there’s…

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