Growing Cold and Crowing Gold (GLD,HYG)

Growing Cold and Crowing Gold (GLD,HYG)   In the same way that the mind and body can become inured to a constant barrage of negative stimuli – a crucial survival mechanism, no doubt – it can also grow insensitive to the positive.   That’s right.   And you can see this in the widespread American penchant for more, better, juicier and sweeter tasting food, a phenomenon that even manifests itself in a television channel dedicated entirely to eating!  There, you’ll learn how to make food, how to serve it, what to spice and spike it with in order to maximize your taste pleasure, and all in the name of moving your tastebuds further out the…

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Sell-Off Lurking (HYG,GLD)

Sell-Off Lurking (HYG,GLD)   Not long ago we wrote about a market indicator we developed and brought public in the late 1990’s; something we refer to as ‘volatility compression’.  We described it recently in a letter called Buy Everything Now!, so we won’t put you through the labor a second time, only to say that it’s worthwhile going back to re-familiarize yourself with the concept, because it’s once again popping red on our screens this week.   Don’t Touch my V-Spot!   Bottom line is this: the CBOE’s VIX indicator, a measure of implied volatility on 30 day SPX options, has now registered repeated multi-year lows over the last six week period.   Have a…

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What are ya? Some Kinda Martian from Pluto!? (GDX,GLD,XBI)

What are ya? Some Kinda Martian from Pluto!? (GDX,GLD,XBI)   We get a good bit of hate mail.  Some of it derides our penchant for options trades, a realm of investing that many believe too fraught with danger to enter.  Others believe that options trading is only for the ultra-wealthy, as margin requirements make a good number of our trades prohibitively expensive to launch.   And we admit it’s sometimes the case.   But the hate mail that’s most venomous generally revolves around the ‘market top’ theme that we regularly write and recommend toward. Beyond our understanding that this greatest of all bull markets is now in the process of making a final blow-off top,…

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Gold is History (GLD,SLV)

Gold is History (GLD,SLV)   Despite the latest dipsy-doodle in the precious metals market, with silver diving almost fifteen percent in under a month, the outlook for the money metals still looks reasonably good.   We’ll get to the proof and the charts in just a moment, but first a little history.   Silver topped out back in the spring of 2011, losing three quarters of its value in a grinding, torturous bear market that spanned a full five years.   Gold, on the other hand, began its bear later that year, plateauing in September of 2011 and bottoming alongside her cheapskate sister as the bells of New Year’s, 2016 were still pealing.   The…

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The Cure? A Few Mixed Metaphors and a Good Bloodletting (SPY,GLD)

Stories abound of fortunes that were lost in a moment of anger.   Whether it was at the poker tables of Vegas or at the directors meeting of a Fortune 500 company, it’s all the same.  It’s happened aplenty on the sidelines of championship athletic contests, too, where a single, vicious outburst derailed the work of years and the cooperation and sweat of dozens, if not hundreds of individuals committed to a common cause.   And you can add to that list countless marriages, innumerable hospital surgeries, crucial military battles and even the fate of whole nation-states… sunk at the hand of an improper word delivered at the wrong time that broke the morale or…

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Commodity Resurrection (KOL,GLD,GS,XLP,XLF)

Commodity Resurrection (KOL,GLD,GS,XLP,XLF)   The process has taken a while to unfold and may require another few weeks to gather momentum, but there’s no longer any doubt.   Grab some more popcorn and licorice.  The commodity horror show is winding to a close. Before we get there, however, we have three trades to close out, with a nice, net take-home for the trio.   Let’s start with our October 11th initiative from a letter called Multiples, Expanding Multiples and the Energy Spectrum.  In that missive we recommended you buy one KOL January 12 PUT for $0.90 and sell one KOL January 12 CALL for $0.85.  Total debit on the trade was $0.05.   Unfortunately, the…

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Now Underway: Massive Market Fake-out! (GLD,GS)

It’s ridiculous.   Could it get any more ridiculous?   Maybe.   But if it does, we’re going to have to throw in the towel and admit that the tools we’ve grown used to employing over the last several decades are simply no longer of any value.   It will be a sad day, indeed – if it ever comes to that. We’re talking about the exaggerated lift we’ve seen in quite a number of stocks since the election of Donald Trump as president.  The indexes have taken off higher in a manner that continues to astound even the most veteran observers.   Take for example just two stocks – the Dow Jones Transportation Index…

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Hey, Gold Bug! Welcome to the Inferno! (GLD,TSLA,GS,XLF,FB)

It didn’t take long, that’s for sure.   Once the mighty Trump landed in the White House, it was time for Quinn the Eskimo and his merry band of goldphiles to turn-tail and run.   Apparently.   And while we may see a bounce here in the precious metals near-term, the fires of hell are only now being stoked for gold lovers – may they endure their agony gracefully.   Either that, of course, or they can sell. We had a friend several years ago who refused to heed our warning about an imminent selloff in the PMs.  He had just loaded up on silver as the metal was topping, and we warned him strenuously…

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WAR! GOLD! DICTATOR! TRUTH! (SLV,GLD,F)

As we approach election day, the question of how the market will react to the ‘will of the people’ takes on new significance.   As of today, equities are moving in a muted, sideways fashion, uncertain of both the outcome of the contest and exactly what should play out beyond.   There are four distinct possibilities, of course, that could be triggered once the results are known.   A Republican win, and a breakout higher, or lower.   A Democrat win, and a breakout higher or lower.   Whatever happens, though, it’s almost certain the market will not continue its sideways grind much more than a day beyond the polls’ closing.   It’s also looking…

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Sell Everything! (SPY,GDXJ,GLD,TSLA,GM)

We had a very strong sell day on Friday, and much of the ink that was spilled over the following days was dedicated to convincing us that the blood is only beginning to flow.   But is it really time to break out the cautery?  Grab the gauze box and squeeze the wound?   Time to throw on some cayenne pepper, maybe?   Ho, ho…! MY. GAWD.   Before we get to the answer, consider some arguments in favor of the continued grand selloff hypothesis –   Investor Complacency   Some swear by it, but we don’t see it, frankly.  The AAII numbers that we watch show a very frightened Ma and Pa investing cohort…

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