Top o’ the Year to Ya! (DIA,FCX)

Top o’ the Year to Ya! (DIA,FCX)   It’s always easier to look back after the fact and act the sage, point out how obvious all the signs were, how the charts all pointed to that particular Wednesday being the top, and that particular earnings report triggering the selling, and the weak kneed trader at that hedge fund, already embroiled in a drug takedown that implicated the Gandhi crime family, whose sticky finger opened the selling when his Xanax wore off and he was without pills for better than an hour.   Sure.  It was easy as pie. But the truth, of course, is much more mundane.  Very few see the day or the sign…

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When the Bystander Wins (FXI,GWW,FCX,BUD)

When the Bystander Wins (FXI,GWW,FCX,BUD)   A brief word to our friends and fellow citizens caught in the belly of the whale down in Houston – stay brave, dear brothers, and be good to each other.  You’re a tough bunch, and you’ll pull through.  We’re thinking and praying for you.   And speaking of a hard rain falling, how about Pretty Boy Nukey, North Korea’s dictator du jour, who looks to be begging for a whooping?   Now, even we understand the need to flex some muscle once in a while, and to assert one’s independence, but this looks a little exaggerated.  Sending missiles over the Japanese mainland is either a rookie mistake, or an…

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Metals. Now. (FCX,UUP,UNG)

Metals. Now. (FCX,UUP,UNG)   We’re going to take a broad survey of the commodities today because recent action in the ‘stuff’ class is looking bullish, and we believe we’ve identified a clever way to trade it.   But first to the background.   We start with the dollar.   As of this writing, the buck sits at its weakest level in a year and is threatening to plunge Alice-like into the nether realms if it loses but a rabbit’s hair more value.   In percentage terms, a mere 2% decline from current levels would put the dollar necrophiliacs into a rapturous frenzy of selling.   And to where she drops, nobody knows.   Have a…

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Long Legged Copper Trade (FCX,OSX,DIA,C,FAZ)

Long Legged Copper Trade (FCX,OSX,DIA,C,FAZ) We’re going to give you a number of things to think about today, most notably the prospect of rising interest rates and the effect they’ll have on commodities.  We’re going to mix in a discussion of inflation, too, as that up-and-coming star will likely play an outsized role in just how these two items (rates and commodities) interact. Before we get to it, however, we have to review two open trades, both of which require your attention.   We’ll start with our September 1st initiative, from a letter called Oil Services About to Spill, in which we urged you to purchase the OSX March 135 PUT for $9.80 and sell…

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Running Numbers (XLK,IYH,GS,FCX,FAS,C,TLT,HYG,AXP,V,RSX)

We’ve got so many trades come due, there’s little time for anything else!   Let’s get right to it.   First, we’ll take a look at a trade we launched over a year ago, on the 12th of November, 2015, in a letter called The Sachs of a McMorAno.   There, we urged you to dump the commodities and move hard and bullish on the financials, using two stock bigshots to play the trade, Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).   The trade recommended you purchase the January 2017 FCX 10 PUT for $3.00 and sell the GS January 2017 GS 150 PUT for $4.95.  Total credit on the trade was a fat $1.95….

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The NASDAQ Gets a Wedgie (QQQ,FCX,TYL)

A quick look at the financial press indicates that the Fed has now moved unequivocally beyond the political.   Rather, it has become perfectly presidentially partisan.   And how’s that?   Consider: the U.S. central bank laid out clear, ongoing guidelines that indicated at precisely what hour it was prepared to raise interest rates.  That hour arrived with the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting (an unbelievably ironic moniker for what these people actually do) yesterday, and what happened?   In a move that shocked only the naïve, the Yellen Gang decided that they would “wait for further evidence of continued progress toward [their] objectives”. Translation – the case for higher rates is already upon…

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Gold Gap Zeroes Out (GLD,GDXJ,FCX)

There will be some very interesting developments across the market over the next few days and weeks, and maybe the most important will involve the precious metals.   Why?   Well, to begin, the dollar has now traced a very bullish continuation pattern called an ‘ascending triangle’.  The pattern looks like this – An ascending triangle is always bullish.  It’s an indication that in the battle between bulls and bears, the latter are slowly running out of ammunition, and once their last shots are fired, buying power will overrun them and advance above resistance toward a new high for the move.   And…   The upshot of a pop in the dollar is that it’ll…

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Dexter’s Walking Shoes (Freeport McMoRan)

We’re going to lead off today with an event that we’ve been anticipating for well over a month. It’s the breakout of shares of Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) from a torturously long sideways slide that we’ve discussed several times over the last few weeks.   The chart pattern from which the breakout occurred is called a ‘rectangle’, for obvious reasons, and it looks like this –     This is exciting for us, because a two months long coil in the stock has created what we believe is now an explosive situation that will almost assuredly resolve itself in massive upside profits.   A look at the rest of technicals offers additional reassurance.   First, we…

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Vexation, Gloom, Anguish! (FCX)

Saturnine?   Dyspeptic?   Depressed?   Maybe it’s without cause. Alright, let’s talk about the obvious.   The Brexit vote made everyone jump on the sell button, and it could be we’ll see more of the same as the week gets going.   With that in mind, let’s examine a few key features of the decision and have a look at some charts before we move ahead on the trade front.   Three Points   Number One – the market has been in a state of zombie-like anticipation for at least a quarter now, waiting for a chicken-little, sky-is-falling event to sell off, and the Brexit results obviously provided them with that reason.  Heading into…

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Copper Top Battery (FCX)

It’s a difficult thing – reality.   Tough to identify.  And tough to digest.   In some fields, it makes little difference; one can ignore reality for years, decades, even centuries in some cases, before the truth finally makes its appearance.  Then the jig is up.  Take the former Soviet Union, for example, or the contemporary, foolhardy Venezuelan effort to copy it. All the while, though, before the eventual reckoning arrives, myriads of souls are set adrift, lost in the invention of men – in the lie.  And while some may make great names for themselves from it, and though fortunes may be won or lost along the way, many, too, will lose everything.  …

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