Precious Metals’ Bear in ICU (SLV,EPI)

Precious Metals’ Bear in ICU (SLV,EPI)   We want to turn to a discussion of commodities today, because the action there is starting to shape up in increasingly clear fashion.   And we’ll start our investigation with a brief look at the dollar, from which so much of the commodities complex takes its cue.   The dollar, remember, puts downward pressure on commodities’ prices as it rises, and upward when it falls.  That’s because the vast majority of the world’s metals, minerals and foodstuffs are traded in U.S. dollars, making them more or less expensive as the dollar fluctuates.   Have a look here – This is the Dollar Index for the last six months,…

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From Trump Tower to the Seeonee Jungle (EPI,AAPL)

The so-called ‘Trump Rally’, that daily confuses the wizards of Wall Street because it doesn’t want to roll over and die, had an equally confusing, initial effect on Emerging Markets traders.   Those markets, and particularly the big four BRIC countries, responded by taking it square on the chin for the first month after the election.  Their currencies, too, struggled in the wake of the the torpor and hysteria that prevailed in those first heady weeks of the transition.   After everyone calmed down, of course, the EMs quickly jumped on the bandwagon and have been streaming skyward ever since. Apparently, the confusion lay in conflicting understandings of the Trump team’s economic policies, and whether…

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Go Suck on a Fish! (TYL,FXI,TSLA,QQQ,EPI,KSS,FAS,TD,IYF,RSX)

Oh, my! Is that any way to talk?   Life, as you know, is not a bowl of cherries. You can’t have your entertainment and your fine foods and your night on the town every day – no, sir. There are times when the drudgery of life takes precedence over its more inspiring moments, and suck as it may, there’s simply no getting around it.   We relate the foregoing because today’s letter is going to be a slight departure from the norm, composed as it is of a simple listing of former trades and their results or advice to close or otherwise repair them.   We apologize in advance for the tedium, and we’ll…

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Kohl’s (KSS), India (EPI) – How To Read The Stock Charts

We’re going to attempt something of a lesson in stock-picking today using two moves that couldn’t be any more different and whose respective charts over the last six months have been completely at odds with each other. The goal is to show that at any given moment the market will offer us a variety of ways to make money, and, indeed, this week we’re going to try to make a bit’o’the green using two distinctly different strategies. But first, here’s a short backgrounder to help you better understand our thinking on both initiatives. We start with a discussion of the American greenback. USD The buck has been extraordinarily strong for coming on nine months, and that’s taken…

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Walking through the Trade (GLD, EPI, TBT, AAPL, GDXJ)

Let’s run down a few trades before we dig into the main course. And we’ll start with this – A long, long time ago, way back in October of 2013, we bet on the long bond falling. We bought the TBT January 80 CALL for $11.00 and sold the January 110 CALL for $4.75 and everything expired out of the money. Loss of $6.25 on the trade. On September 8th we got India in the blood and bought the January 24 EPI CALL for $0.90 while selling the January 21 EPI PUT for $0.30. And we didn’t give it enough time. India is now breaking higher, but we took a loss. We’re out sixty bucks…

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Hunting with the Indians (DJIA, EPI)

This is the time of year that speaks most directly to the need for renewal and regeneration. Yes, in most parts of the country fall is beginning (winter in some locales!) and the leaves are turning, so for many the feeling may be more one of nostalgia and conservation than revolution. But we hold to the doctrine that everything must be renewed regularly, so any retrenching and holding on to past notions and habits is, in our eyes, a recipe for stagnation, rather than a proper conservativism. And where do we find the mood for change most starkly exhibited today? Quite clearly, it’s in the run-up to this November’s elections, where the possibility of a…

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Don’t be a ‘Hoper’ (EPI, GLD)

High school football coach used to yell at us something fierce for not being in on every tackle. “Don’t be a hoper,” he’d yell. “Don’t just stand there hoping someone else gets it done, Ruminov! You get in there yourself – you be the one! Cement head.” Never had to convince me, though. I always took pleasure in running over would-be fame seekers. Even fancied myself the second coming of mean smilin’ Jack Lambert of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Had an entire scrapbook of pictures devoted to the man that I surreptitiously tore out of Sports Illustrated back issues at the local library. Now that we’re older, though, we see that selfsame tendency in our chosen…

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