A Tale of Two Markets (QQQ,DIA,SPY)

A Tale of Two Markets (QQQ,DIA,SPY) Here’s some technical puzzlement to lead off the day… What’s to be made of the dichotomy between the Dow and S&P 500 on the one hand, both of whom have failed to better their former all-time highs from late January, and the NASDAQ, whose fashion-forward tech names have easily managed to best those levels over the last few days? Does it mean we’re headed for a retest of the February lows, as the charts of the Dow/S&P would suggest? Or are we rather headed higher, with any dip in the coming weeks or month just a chance to gather ye marbles, while ye may. The answer to that question…

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“Bobbi-Jean, You Take That Mask Off Now!” (IYT,XPO,DIA)

“Bobbi-Jean, You Take That Mask Off Now!” (IYT,XPO,DIA)   It always struck us as interesting that this whole FBI/Dept. of Justice/Russian meddling story began with something the G-men call ‘unmasking’, a process whereby American citizens’ identities and affairs are exposed during a broad intelligence sweep that targets foreign nationals.   Normally these people and their privacy would be protected.  Unless, of course, permission is granted from a higher authority to reveal their names.   Unmasking. There are also periods during which all the masks come off.  And if we’re fortunate, this could be one of them.  Call it the midnight hour, the post-ball tolling of the bell, the point at which the pumpkin truth is…

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China Needs to Chill (FXI,DIA,QQQ,SPY)

China Needs to Chill (FXI,DIA,QQQ,SPY)   We’ve put ‘war’ on the backburner for a stretch of time now – what with the winter olympics and the market falling out of bed and shootings in Florida. But it may be time to return to the military theme now, as, apparently, the powers-that-be have not lost sight of looming martial conflicts for even a minute. Potentially the biggest news comes from the Chinese-North Korean border, where the world’s largest military has just deployed an additional 300,000 soldiers in preparation for a potential war.   The Chinese themselves have little interest in warring with the North Koreans, but every reason to want to control the territory after a…

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The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)

The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)   For some time now, we’ve been kicking up a big to-do about how the current market has lost all sense of the fundamental and is being driven exclusively by sentiment and cash flows.   And there’s no gainsaying that as we approach the final innings of history’s greatest ever bull market, we’ll see ever more money making chase after equities as they swerve higher and lower, as volatility ratchets up like Norse stretch rack and indecision in the bond market creates powerful cash surges between equities and fixed income.   That said, we want to reassure you that we still believe the major indexes’ best days lie ahead – but…

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That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)

That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)   There are stats and there are stats.  And, of course, when the market is in the middle of a panic breakdown, all the facts fit to print are lugged out of the analyst valise in order to convince you of what’s to come. And here at Normandy, we’re really no different.  Regardless of how little we trust the mainstream, fundamental approach to investing in this era of absolute government intervention, we have to rely on something.  Coin-flipping went out at least a century ago in the stock buying game.   As we’ve stated repeatedly, the contest is now being played on the sentiment front – in large part – while…

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Jimmy! We’re Stuck in a Market Maelstrom! (GDX,DIA)

Jimmy! We’re Stuck in a Market Maelstrom! (GDX,DIA)   That’s the way bookie fumbles, folks.   You enter the casino either as an oddsmaker or a bettor, and it doesn’t matter which – in both roles you run an equal risk of exiting a loser.   And that’s the lesson of the last week in equity markets, too, a period that witnessed volatility jump from near record low levels to VIX 50 yesterday!  A 1600 point drop on the Dow also made history.   Yet the masses still don’t understand the nature of the beast.   If sentiment levels are any guide – and they should be, because that’s the only thing that’s truly guiding…

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Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)

Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)   We’ll open today with a look at the dollar and a few comments that the White House has been making in relation thereto.   And we start like this –   Steve Mnuchin, the President’s Treasury Secretary was in Davos this week to laugh at the world’s poor and confabulate over how to keep things humming without too much acting out on the part of the hoi polloi.   And in the midst of it all he offered the following on the sinking American dollar – And that immediately sent the buck-sellers directly into action.  The Dollar Index tanked, adding shame to the already existing scorn, and creating a picture…

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Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)

Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)   The local authorities in my city have just notified me that my newborn son’s name is  not acceptable to them, and that I’m going to have to change it.   If ever there were a case of government overreach, this is it.   They’ve informed me that in order to keep the moniker that I’ve longed to give him, I’ll have to go to the courthouse on my own time and at my own expense to have the child’s name officially registered before a judge.   If, of course, the judge agrees. In this day and I age, there’s no shortage of asininity in the world.  I can be…

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The Lord Giveth… (QQQ,DIA,VOX,HYG,CBOE,KKR,FB)

The Lord Giveth… (QQQ,DIA,VOX,HYG,CBOE,KKR,FB)   It’s hard to find anything negative to say about a market that has been on an even-keeled, upward trajectory for the last eight years.   You can mock what underpins its strength, you can deride the foolishness of those who’ve made millions just buying and sitting put, and you can wail like a newborn over the fundamental and technical excesses that are sure (eventually) to rock the very foundations of the financial edifice and send the global economy off the edge of the planet. And eventually, we admit, you’ll be right.  The fun will come to an end.   But it’s far more likely to be a jagged up-and-down affair…

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Top o’ the Year to Ya! (DIA,FCX)

Top o’ the Year to Ya! (DIA,FCX)   It’s always easier to look back after the fact and act the sage, point out how obvious all the signs were, how the charts all pointed to that particular Wednesday being the top, and that particular earnings report triggering the selling, and the weak kneed trader at that hedge fund, already embroiled in a drug takedown that implicated the Gandhi crime family, whose sticky finger opened the selling when his Xanax wore off and he was without pills for better than an hour.   Sure.  It was easy as pie. But the truth, of course, is much more mundane.  Very few see the day or the sign…

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