Stoking the Commodities (DBC)

Stoking the Commodities (DBC) Last fall, we suggested that by year end America would either be engaged in military hostilities of some sort with North Korea or would come away embarrassed, chastened and looking every part the fool. It didn’t happen, of course, because a back channel for negotiations was eventually set up, and North Korea is now openly suggesting it would give up its nuclear program under the right conditions. Is it a victory for the bombastic ones in the administration, who threatened and cajoled and all the while turned up the temperature on North Korea? Time will tell. It’s hard to say at this point who was bluffing, who was buying time, and…

Read More

The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)

The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)   For some time now, we’ve been kicking up a big to-do about how the current market has lost all sense of the fundamental and is being driven exclusively by sentiment and cash flows.   And there’s no gainsaying that as we approach the final innings of history’s greatest ever bull market, we’ll see ever more money making chase after equities as they swerve higher and lower, as volatility ratchets up like Norse stretch rack and indecision in the bond market creates powerful cash surges between equities and fixed income.   That said, we want to reassure you that we still believe the major indexes’ best days lie ahead – but…

Read More

Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)

Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)   We’ll open today with a look at the dollar and a few comments that the White House has been making in relation thereto.   And we start like this –   Steve Mnuchin, the President’s Treasury Secretary was in Davos this week to laugh at the world’s poor and confabulate over how to keep things humming without too much acting out on the part of the hoi polloi.   And in the midst of it all he offered the following on the sinking American dollar – And that immediately sent the buck-sellers directly into action.  The Dollar Index tanked, adding shame to the already existing scorn, and creating a picture…

Read More

Wonderful World of Mid-Caps (MTD,IWR,DBC,XLE)

Wonderful World of Mid-Caps (MTD,IWR,DBC,XLE)   Well, we’ve waited… and waited… and waited….   We’re patient people, after all.  So it doesn’t kill us to bide our time.   But we have to admit that it’s getting a little ridiculous.   As of the latest data, the NASDAQ market has set an all-time record number of new highs in a calendar year at 63.   Have a look – The last time we got a reading this high was back in 1980.   That’s almost 40 years.   But not only have we seen relentless buying on the part of investors over the year; we also have a situation of persistent calm during the entire…

Read More

Financial Two-Timer (FAS,DBC,OSX)

Financial Two-Timer (FAS,DBC,OSX)   You won’t see this talked about too much anywhere else, but we feel it’s worthy of your attention.   On Tuesday afternoon, Transportation stocks logged new, all-time record highs, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average reaching 9795 intraday.  Yesterday it tacked on a further gain.   As we’ve pointed out numerous times, we’re not whistling Dixie when we say this is news.  There’s no question about it.   For as Dow Theory tells us, when the averages are rising in tandem to new highs, we have what’s termed a ‘bullish confirmation’.  There have been six such instances of that this year, and as the chart below shows, that’s exactly what Tuesday’s…

Read More

Financial Drone Strike! (NOC,DBC,JCP,LOW,SLV,UUP)

There’s been a great deal of press lately regarding a handful of tech companies and the outsized role they’ve played in goosing the market averages.   And, indeed, it’s the case that Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Facebook and Apple have all been climbing recently, and contributed in great measure to the success of the NASDAQ, not to mention the S&P 500 in the last fortnight.   But a look at breadth figures for the rest of the big caps shows that the big five are not alone; nearly all the index components have been pulling their weight. The percentage of S&P stocks trading above their 50 day moving averages, a rudimentary indicator of bullishness, climbed…

Read More

Trump Builds Spectacular Wall… of Worry (DBC,QQQ)

Trump Builds Spectacular Wall… of Worry (DBC,QQQ)   You gotta hand it to the guy.   With all his extreme plans and revolutionary positions and bombing raids and war on the media and threats of more; with all the brouhaha he’s created among fellow Republicans in Congress and the apparent fallout with his closest advisors and even his core constituency; with the game of chicken he’s apparently decided to play with the Spending Bill, with Obamacare and North Korea and Russia and Paul Ryan…   With all that…   One would think that everyone and his sister would be fleeing Dodge on the first coach out – and taking their investments with them!   But…

Read More

Junk Skew Calling! (HYG,DBC,STT,TROW)

Junk Skew Calling! (HYG,DBC,STT,TROW)   There’s a great deal to discuss on the macro/monetary level, but we’re going to divert our attention today to the other end of the spectrum and examine a few, key technical minutiae before offering you a trade.   So let’s begin with this.   There’s an old adage on Wall Street that states, quite simply, ‘the trend is your friend.’ That’s right.  Those who’ve played this game the longest will tell you that it’s all rather simple.  In a bull market, money is made by remaining long.  In a bear market, by staying short.   But there are numerous corollaries to what appears to be so axiomatic simple, including 1)…

Read More

Hunting Elephant Profits (GLD, DBC)

Papa always told us, it takes a long time to get to know someone – a very long time. And unless you’ve either worked with him or gone through a crisis with him, chances are decades may pass before you see his true colors. And so it is… Commodities are falling – copper just fell to a new multi-year low – oil, well we all know the story there. And it seems we’ve seen enough… Look here – The weekly chart of copper shows the metal in the midst of a near-four year slide, with lower highs and lower lows being set with increasing rapidity. And perhaps worst of all for copper-hopers is her RSI…

Read More

Icon McAbby Reveals Steamy Investment Taboos! (CRB, DBC)

There’s a confusion occurring in the world of commodities these days, and we’re going to do our level best to set it aright. It goes like this – There’s a belief in some quarters that the commodities are now at a turning point and that higher prices are ahead for most if not all commodity futures because 1) the dollar is losing its cache as the world’s reserve currency, 2) the BRIC countries are increasingly abandoning the buck in favor of trade in their own currencies and 3) that after three and a half years in a downward spiral, the bear market in commodities has simply wound to an end. But is it so? Let’s…

Read More

Powered by WishList Member - Membership Software