WAR! All the Latest Bellicosity and Bombast! (SPY,C,FB,DIA,IYT)

WAR! All the Latest Bellicosity and Bombast! (SPY,C,FB,DIA,IYT)   North Korea, friends.  It’s all about North Korea.   What do we mean?   Well, in the first place, you can expect that the news cycle is about to be dominated by that nuclear-tipped maniac, Kim Jong Un and his merry band of scribblers for the next couple of months, as the move toward a full scale erasure of the wicked Northern Kingdom is hatched, plotted and executed.   Already we see signs that, at the very least, the stage is being set for a negotiating turn of the screw the likes of which haven’t been seen since Bold Boy Arnold threatened the entire stickball crew…

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The Scent of Ascent (FB,C)

The Scent of Ascent (FB,C)   We’re going to start this week by claiming unapologetically and without any shame that tech stocks – particularly those sexiest FANG names – are about to spear the meat and offer a taste sensation that will be remembered by the longs for years to come. Here’s the setup.   First, earnings season is now underway and expectations for the quarter have been revised drastically lower.  Between storms and their damage and the effect they’ve had on employment and agriculture and tourism and the like, Wall Street believes aggregate earnings numbers will be far inferior to what was initially expected.   And that could bring a blessing.   Should there…

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Break Out the New Silverware (SLV,C,FAZ)

Break Out the New Silverware (SLV,C,FAZ) There are those who go through life happy to be around people, cajoling and backslapping, but desperately uncomfortable in their own skin.  And then there are those who prefer solitude, but are quite content with who they are.  The former we often refer to as ‘extroverts’.  Some prefer to call them ‘politicians’.  The latter are labeled ‘introverts’.  But a better term might be ‘wise’.   Now, of course, there’s a broad spectrum of people that fall in between these two extremes, and our point in offering all this today is to get you thinking of roughly where you fall in that space.  Why?  Because it’s more than likely that…

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Long Legged Copper Trade (FCX,OSX,DIA,C,FAZ)

Long Legged Copper Trade (FCX,OSX,DIA,C,FAZ) We’re going to give you a number of things to think about today, most notably the prospect of rising interest rates and the effect they’ll have on commodities.  We’re going to mix in a discussion of inflation, too, as that up-and-coming star will likely play an outsized role in just how these two items (rates and commodities) interact. Before we get to it, however, we have to review two open trades, both of which require your attention.   We’ll start with our September 1st initiative, from a letter called Oil Services About to Spill, in which we urged you to purchase the OSX March 135 PUT for $9.80 and sell…

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Running Numbers (XLK,IYH,GS,FCX,FAS,C,TLT,HYG,AXP,V,RSX)

We’ve got so many trades come due, there’s little time for anything else!   Let’s get right to it.   First, we’ll take a look at a trade we launched over a year ago, on the 12th of November, 2015, in a letter called The Sachs of a McMorAno.   There, we urged you to dump the commodities and move hard and bullish on the financials, using two stock bigshots to play the trade, Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).   The trade recommended you purchase the January 2017 FCX 10 PUT for $3.00 and sell the GS January 2017 GS 150 PUT for $4.95.  Total credit on the trade was a fat $1.95….

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Short Sellers Disappeared? Time to Short! (FAZ,C)

We’ve mentioned this a number of times over the last few years, but it bears repeating.  As we move toward the final, bull market, blow-off top, we expect to see price behaviors unlike anything we’ve witnessed historically.   And it will test all our markers, fundamental and technical, and very likely sentiment readings, too, which we fully expect to fly off the charts.   Why?   Because the final stages of a multi-generational bull market are not a rational phenomenon.   By nature, secular bull and bear markets always end with excesses.  But we’re now entering the mother-daddy of all bull market finales.  You will not see another market event like this in your lifetime,…

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Diversions! Distractions! Shell Games and Worry! (C,FAS,TYL)

We’ve got one trade to report before we move to this week’s business, and it goes like this –   The trade was opened on the 30th of June in a letter which featured Tyler Technologies (NYSE:TYL).  It was called July Rant, and it urged you to sell the TYL July 170 CALL for $1.70 and buy the TYL September 170 CALL for $8.70.  Total debit on the trade was $7.00.   Now, it’s never advisable to engage in braggadocio, particularly in this business, where you’re bupkus and spat upon if your last trade was a dud.   Fortunately, we’re specialists in ‘last trade success’ (and equally competent in the braggart department), so we offer…

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What the Hell Are You Eating!? (QQQ,C,URBN)

A brief digression in the name of another truth…   We want to suggest to you all – each and every one of you – that you take an hour out of your busy schedule to explore the findings of a woman called Natasha Campbell-McBride, a Russian born neurologist who’s based in Cambridge or Oxford, England, or some such.   Now, it’s not usually our place to comment on what you’re eating or to tell you how to cook the food you buy.  We’re more interested in making you the money you need to do it however the hell you please.   But because the world’s in such a pitiful state, and because most of…

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The Urban Banking Reversal (URBN,C,GLD,FXI)

    Amid all the wailing and round-the-clock attention the damned primaries are getting, you’d think the Super Bowl had been changed to a non-stop, twelve-month televised death match!   But this isn’t sport, friends.   This is your life.   So, in the interest of offering you a brief digression, we offer hereunder a pithy primer on what all the hoopla is really about.   And it goes like this –   If you’re rich and secure and haven’t been overly picked on by government, you vote for Cruz. If you’re poor and secure and haven’t been overly picked on by government, you vote for Hillary. If you’re young and pissed and are looking…

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Jobless claims rise, Citigroup (C) misses expectations and Bank of America (BAC) reports a drop in profits

Markets opened lower on Thursday after jobless rates crept up to a four-month high for the week ending on January 10. The Labor Department said that the number of people filing for unemployment claims increased 19,000 to a total of 316,000. The new data surpassed the 291,000 that economists’ were projecting. The previous week’s information was upwardly revised to show 3,000 more claims than originally posted. The more stable data, the four-week moving average, was up by 6,750 to 298,000. This number takes the large weekly swings out of the equation. Over the past four and a half months the jobless rate has remained below the 300,000 level, which is tied to a strengthening labor market….

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