That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)

That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)   There are stats and there are stats.  And, of course, when the market is in the middle of a panic breakdown, all the facts fit to print are lugged out of the analyst valise in order to convince you of what’s to come. And here at Normandy, we’re really no different.  Regardless of how little we trust the mainstream, fundamental approach to investing in this era of absolute government intervention, we have to rely on something.  Coin-flipping went out at least a century ago in the stock buying game.   As we’ve stated repeatedly, the contest is now being played on the sentiment front – in large part – while…

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Washington Redeemed! (AAPL,EWP,CBOE,FB)

Washington Redeemed! (AAPL,EWP,CBOE,FB)   Never were fans of big government here at Normandy.  Don’t think it’s good for the overall health of the nation, nor for its better management or even for its longevity.   Never trusted it.  Always figured the goal was to put everyone on the payroll and then force feed them worthless currency.  Where else are the buzzturds gonna turn for a buck?!   Nope, always preferred the local brand of self-governance – really local! So the thought of someone – an outsider – coming to the big house ready to do battle with the forces-that-be was intriguing.  But whether Senor Trump actually fits that bill remains an open question.   We’ve…

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The Crypto-Reformation (GFI,AU,AAPL,DIA,AOBC)

The Crypto-Reformation (GFI,AU,AAPL,DIA,AOBC)   The biggest story by far this year in the financial world is Bitcoin, and the hop-along crypto-currencies that have been developed in its wake.   Our own commentary on the phenomenon has been limited thus far, with fellow Normandy scribbler, Hugh L. O’Haynew, chiming in earlier this week with his feelings on the matter at somewhat greater length.   We don’t want to bedevil you today with too much more on the story except to say that there is real evidence that the Bitcoin religion is stealing adherents from the chapels of the precious metal god. Hugh mentioned this in his tirade earlier this week, but just yesterday we caught wind…

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The Snowball Manifesto (XLE,AAPL,TSLA)

The Snowball Manifesto (XLE,AAPL,TSLA)   Here at Normandy we believe that the dichotomy purported to exist between the so-called ‘Globalists’ and those who consider themselves part of the “Liberty Movement’, is a false one.   Yes, there are those – from both the right and left of the political spectrum – who believe that economic and political power should be concentrated in the hands of a few elite superiors.  We call them ‘Globalists’.  And their motto is ‘Trust your leaders’.   Then there are those who believe that power should be decentralized to the greatest degree possible, even at the expense of many long-established, well-run Washington-based entities that serve the common weal and boast a…

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Things We Like. And Things We Don’t (QQQ,AAPL,PIR,SPY,DIA,AOBC)

Things We Like.  And Things We Don’t (QQQ,AAPL,PIR,SPY,DIA,AOBC)   Ed. Note – the devastation in Florida and across the southwest warrants a word of hope and encouragement for all those who experienced the wrath of Irma … Hang tough, friends.  And be good to each other.   Our thoughts are with you.   There are currently a number of discordant trends in the market that are worthy of our scrutiny, and that we believe point to precisely where we’re positioned in this longest and most powerful of all bull markets.   We hope that a firm understanding of that position will also reveal to us an appropriate trade for the week, as unlikely as it may…

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Confusion, Lies, and the Trades They Inspire (CAT,AAPL,KSS,XLK,IYH)

Confusion, Lies, and the Trades They Inspire (CAT,AAPL,KSS,XLK,IYH)   A good number of the folk you meet on a daily basis are whacked.  But it’s important to know that there are actually several types of whackos out there, including two that are regularly confused with one another.  In truth, they suffer from distinctly different maladies.   On the one hand, you have the confused individual.  He’s raised in a milieu of half-truths, modern statist brainwashing and outright lunacy and simply doesn’t know any better.  He therefore spouts his nonsense with conviction because it’s all he knows, and it’s well-nigh impossible for him to get outside the box that was built for him. He suffers for…

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Saltpeter Rising (AOBC,AAPL,IEF,OSX)

It’s shaping up to be one weird summer.   Consider what our fellow Norman, Hugh L. O’Haynew, wrote last week about the market’s ‘fear gauge’, the VIX. And whaddaya know, last week the damned thing fell to 9.37, just spitting distance from her all-time low of 9.31 back in December of 1993.   As for volatility compression, of which Hugh spoke at length, we still haven’t seen anything noteworthy, though that doesn’t mean a meaningful decline has been avoided.  Everything is still possible.   Including War?   Now, we don’t like to get caught up in hysterics.  And the media is good at nothing if not that: working up folks into a lather – as,…

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From Rio to Shanghai! (FXI,NOC,AAPL?)

From Rio to Shanghai! (FXI,NOC,AAPL?)   It’s always surprising to us just how much dissonance can exist between the news on a stock or sector, on the one hand, and the actual price moves for the security, on the other.   It can be outrageous.   So, for example, when you see the financial press go to town on Brazil or Twitter or the auto industry, it behooves you as a clever investor to take a look under the hood, kick the tires and offer a good long gaze at the nearest Brazilian Twitters you can find.   For the results are bound to surprise. We bring this to your attention because the current sound…

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New Tech. New Mania. Old Bird. (AAPL)

New Tech. New Mania. Old Bird. (AAPL)   Ever since we gave up horse travel for railroads, folks have been giddy-up giddy over the latest tech innovations.  Investors, too, saw fit to jump from the buggy to the railcar to the telephone to the phonograph without missing the chance to be the first to own the latest.   Some inventions, of course, came and went and made their splash before being ousted by newer, trendier, or cheaper ideas (think Polaroid, Atari and the Commodore 64).   But others have stayed.  And a number have profited wildly as the pace of changed revved higher over the last quarter century.   We needn’t name names.  It’s clear…

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Best Be Bond Bound (IEF,AAPL)

Best Be Bond Bound (IEF,AAPL)   We’ve been surprised by action in the bond market of late, where an upward trend appears not only in the making, but at a time when rates are beginning to ratchet higher and the stock market has gotten some traction, one would think that Treasuries had little hope.   Not so.   In fact, before we get to the actual charts, consider a number of fascinating bond market data from the last couple of weeks.   To begin, we are now witnessing the largest short squeeze in the Treasury market since the world was created.   Look here – Better than $25 billion in Ten Year short futures have…

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