Turn Tide, Turn! (TLT,LVNTA,SPY)

Turn Tide, Turn! (TLT,LVNTA,SPY) We file these reports on a strict weekly deadline. No matter what happens, we’ve committed ourselves to arriving at your inbox on time, week in, week out, every Thursday by noon. And, of course, it’s tough nuts to us if we have to offer a trade in the midst of a major market selloff. Lord knows how tough it is to read markets while a storm of volatility is crashing down upon us, just like that which appears to be at our doorstep. We have a few options available when this happens, to be sure. We can refocus on a calmer quarter of the investment world and attempt a trade where…

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Spies and Spycraft (FB,XLK)

Spies and Spycraft (FB,XLK) There’s lots to report today, so sit back and grabba java. We start with the following but of pithy wisdom straight from the leaders of our fair firm’s investment advisory board. And it goes like this – The more secrecy that exists in a state’s apparatus, the weaker the state is, and the more vulnerable it becomes to a widespread revolt or armed insurrection. Commit that to memory. We offer it up today, not only because our own fair commonwealth has far too much backroom subterfuge and chicanery, but more worrisome, because we’re moving in the wrong direction! We’re being ever more scrutinized, bureaucratized, analyzed and plain old watched – particularly…

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A Tale of Two Markets (QQQ,DIA,SPY)

A Tale of Two Markets (QQQ,DIA,SPY) Here’s some technical puzzlement to lead off the day… What’s to be made of the dichotomy between the Dow and S&P 500 on the one hand, both of whom have failed to better their former all-time highs from late January, and the NASDAQ, whose fashion-forward tech names have easily managed to best those levels over the last few days? Does it mean we’re headed for a retest of the February lows, as the charts of the Dow/S&P would suggest? Or are we rather headed higher, with any dip in the coming weeks or month just a chance to gather ye marbles, while ye may. The answer to that question…

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DR JOHN (DR,XLK,PRI,MTD,IWR)

DR JOHN (DR,XLK,PRI,MTD,IWR)   Our good friend, Matt McAbby, wrote in last week’s Options Trader Elite about a scenario that he referred to as the ‘non-bear’ market.  That is, the possibility that the current bull run in equities would continue until… well, there was no market anymore!   He was referring to a complete shutdown in trading that he suggested might continue either temporarily or, conceivably long enough to count as permanent because by the time everything was up and running again, the new reality would have rendered the whole project superfluous.   McAbby’s contention was that the possibility of an attack on American soil, either conventional or non-, is not a risk that investors…

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We’re All Numismatists Now (GLD,XPO,IYT)

We’re All Numismatists Now (GLD,XPO,IYT)   We’re going to lean against the wind a little this week and offer up something that gets little attention in the investment world, though, in our view, it deserves more.   There are many folks who, like us, like the market’s prospects in the near term.  There’s also a full throated minority that carry the bear case.  But both groups are in full agreement that bear markets begin where bulls end, and even saying so is too much a truism to garner any meaningful attention from either party.   But what if that were not the case?  What if markets did not turn over in the normal fashion after…

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Two Cent Technology Trade (XLK,GLD,FCX)

Two Cent Technology Trade (XLK,GLD,FCX)   It’s looking increasingly like the toppling market we saw just a month ago is now regarded by investors as ancient history.   Yes, there was a retreat – of sorts – over the last week, but it was selective.  And what emerges is that the leaders of this market – the big cap NASDAQ numbers – are stronger than ever.  Stocks like Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook are either at their all-time highs or pushing strongly thereto.   It’s a phenomenal show of strength on the part of some of the most obscenely valued securities on the planet, and an equally remarkable show of faith on the…

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“Bobbi-Jean, You Take That Mask Off Now!” (IYT,XPO,DIA)

“Bobbi-Jean, You Take That Mask Off Now!” (IYT,XPO,DIA)   It always struck us as interesting that this whole FBI/Dept. of Justice/Russian meddling story began with something the G-men call ‘unmasking’, a process whereby American citizens’ identities and affairs are exposed during a broad intelligence sweep that targets foreign nationals.   Normally these people and their privacy would be protected.  Unless, of course, permission is granted from a higher authority to reveal their names.   Unmasking. There are also periods during which all the masks come off.  And if we’re fortunate, this could be one of them.  Call it the midnight hour, the post-ball tolling of the bell, the point at which the pumpkin truth is…

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China Needs to Chill (FXI,DIA,QQQ,SPY)

China Needs to Chill (FXI,DIA,QQQ,SPY)   We’ve put ‘war’ on the backburner for a stretch of time now – what with the winter olympics and the market falling out of bed and shootings in Florida. But it may be time to return to the military theme now, as, apparently, the powers-that-be have not lost sight of looming martial conflicts for even a minute. Potentially the biggest news comes from the Chinese-North Korean border, where the world’s largest military has just deployed an additional 300,000 soldiers in preparation for a potential war.   The Chinese themselves have little interest in warring with the North Koreans, but every reason to want to control the territory after a…

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The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)

The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)   For some time now, we’ve been kicking up a big to-do about how the current market has lost all sense of the fundamental and is being driven exclusively by sentiment and cash flows.   And there’s no gainsaying that as we approach the final innings of history’s greatest ever bull market, we’ll see ever more money making chase after equities as they swerve higher and lower, as volatility ratchets up like Norse stretch rack and indecision in the bond market creates powerful cash surges between equities and fixed income.   That said, we want to reassure you that we still believe the major indexes’ best days lie ahead – but…

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THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY)

THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY) OH. MY. GAWD!   In a development that’s caught nearly everyone off guard, a massive high pressure system recently sundered the normally quiescent Arctic ‘polar vortex’ in two!   It’s a little known, unique weather event that, according to meteorologists, could bring MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AMERICAN EAST COAST AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE WEST COAST AND CONTINENTAL EUROPE! Did you get that?   In the coming weeks, the weather may change due to this disruption of the normally static low pressure cell that sits over the Arctic!   And whaddaya know, U.K. natural gas contracts have already spiked some 3.5% in anticipation of the cold blast,…

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