We Are Investment Artists! (AAPL,GLD,TSLA)

We Are Investment Artists! (AAPL,GLD,TSLA) We at Normandy prefer the use of options because of the (mostly) limited liability involved in their use, as well as the wide variety of strategies and structures they afford the interested trader to employ. Nearly any price projection you might make has at least one corresponding options strategy available to profit from. In short, options are, in our view, the premiere weapon for the prudent investor in this age of increasing financial and geopolitical uncertainty. We mention this now, because we’ve clearly entered a period in which excesses in valuation and government intervention have made predicting market moves a far less quantitative operation – less scientific, if you will…

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Stoking the Commodities (DBC)

Stoking the Commodities (DBC) Last fall, we suggested that by year end America would either be engaged in military hostilities of some sort with North Korea or would come away embarrassed, chastened and looking every part the fool. It didn’t happen, of course, because a back channel for negotiations was eventually set up, and North Korea is now openly suggesting it would give up its nuclear program under the right conditions. Is it a victory for the bombastic ones in the administration, who threatened and cajoled and all the while turned up the temperature on North Korea? Time will tell. It’s hard to say at this point who was bluffing, who was buying time, and…

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Where The Markets Meet War (SPY,NOC)

bs’d Where The Markets Meet War (SPY,NOC) There are days to be thankful for, friends. And this is one of them. For all that we have (and don’t really deserve), we should bend over backward and thank our tormentors. For all that we want and still haven’t gotten (and really don’t deserve, either), hold on a bit. For in the end, there’s little doubt that the greatest of all Supreme Court Justices will bestow upon us our worldly dessert in the most precise and poignant manner. And may he do so doubly to our enemies! Revenge and the Making of Foes It’s hard to figure where the current round of trade wars will end. There…

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The Balsa Wood Festival (TSLA,GFI,AU)

The Balsa Wood Festival (TSLA,GFI,AU) When I was a kid, it was all the rage to build balsa wood gliders and send them sailing down the 70 foot drop at Dead Man’s Hill in Eglinton Park. The things never lasted more than four or five trips; they were balsa wood, after all. But watching them soar was a thrill. And if the winds were just so, and the balance and design were good, those contraptions were for us an awe and a wonder on par with the ten plagues. The crash-ups were equally exquisite. Those golden moments of silence when my buddies and I waited for our aircraft to finally touch down were the most…

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Turn Tide, Turn! (TLT,LVNTA,SPY)

Turn Tide, Turn! (TLT,LVNTA,SPY) We file these reports on a strict weekly deadline. No matter what happens, we’ve committed ourselves to arriving at your inbox on time, week in, week out, every Thursday by noon. And, of course, it’s tough nuts to us if we have to offer a trade in the midst of a major market selloff. Lord knows how tough it is to read markets while a storm of volatility is crashing down upon us, just like that which appears to be at our doorstep. We have a few options available when this happens, to be sure. We can refocus on a calmer quarter of the investment world and attempt a trade where…

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A Tale of Two Markets (QQQ,DIA,SPY)

A Tale of Two Markets (QQQ,DIA,SPY) Here’s some technical puzzlement to lead off the day… What’s to be made of the dichotomy between the Dow and S&P 500 on the one hand, both of whom have failed to better their former all-time highs from late January, and the NASDAQ, whose fashion-forward tech names have easily managed to best those levels over the last few days? Does it mean we’re headed for a retest of the February lows, as the charts of the Dow/S&P would suggest? Or are we rather headed higher, with any dip in the coming weeks or month just a chance to gather ye marbles, while ye may. The answer to that question…

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We’re All Numismatists Now (GLD,XPO,IYT)

We’re All Numismatists Now (GLD,XPO,IYT)   We’re going to lean against the wind a little this week and offer up something that gets little attention in the investment world, though, in our view, it deserves more.   There are many folks who, like us, like the market’s prospects in the near term.  There’s also a full throated minority that carry the bear case.  But both groups are in full agreement that bear markets begin where bulls end, and even saying so is too much a truism to garner any meaningful attention from either party.   But what if that were not the case?  What if markets did not turn over in the normal fashion after…

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“Bobbi-Jean, You Take That Mask Off Now!” (IYT,XPO,DIA)

“Bobbi-Jean, You Take That Mask Off Now!” (IYT,XPO,DIA)   It always struck us as interesting that this whole FBI/Dept. of Justice/Russian meddling story began with something the G-men call ‘unmasking’, a process whereby American citizens’ identities and affairs are exposed during a broad intelligence sweep that targets foreign nationals.   Normally these people and their privacy would be protected.  Unless, of course, permission is granted from a higher authority to reveal their names.   Unmasking. There are also periods during which all the masks come off.  And if we’re fortunate, this could be one of them.  Call it the midnight hour, the post-ball tolling of the bell, the point at which the pumpkin truth is…

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The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)

The Bigger Picture (SPY,FNV,DIA,UUP,DBC)   For some time now, we’ve been kicking up a big to-do about how the current market has lost all sense of the fundamental and is being driven exclusively by sentiment and cash flows.   And there’s no gainsaying that as we approach the final innings of history’s greatest ever bull market, we’ll see ever more money making chase after equities as they swerve higher and lower, as volatility ratchets up like Norse stretch rack and indecision in the bond market creates powerful cash surges between equities and fixed income.   That said, we want to reassure you that we still believe the major indexes’ best days lie ahead – but…

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That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)

That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)   There are stats and there are stats.  And, of course, when the market is in the middle of a panic breakdown, all the facts fit to print are lugged out of the analyst valise in order to convince you of what’s to come. And here at Normandy, we’re really no different.  Regardless of how little we trust the mainstream, fundamental approach to investing in this era of absolute government intervention, we have to rely on something.  Coin-flipping went out at least a century ago in the stock buying game.   As we’ve stated repeatedly, the contest is now being played on the sentiment front – in large part – while…

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