That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)

That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)   There are stats and there are stats.  And, of course, when the market is in the middle of a panic breakdown, all the facts fit to print are lugged out of the analyst valise in order to convince you of what’s to come. And here at Normandy, we’re really no different.  Regardless of how little we trust the mainstream, fundamental approach to investing in this era of absolute government intervention, we have to rely on something.  Coin-flipping went out at least a century ago in the stock buying game.   As we’ve stated repeatedly, the contest is now being played on the sentiment front – in large part – while…

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Jimmy! We’re Stuck in a Market Maelstrom! (GDX,DIA)

Jimmy! We’re Stuck in a Market Maelstrom! (GDX,DIA)   That’s the way bookie fumbles, folks.   You enter the casino either as an oddsmaker or a bettor, and it doesn’t matter which – in both roles you run an equal risk of exiting a loser.   And that’s the lesson of the last week in equity markets, too, a period that witnessed volatility jump from near record low levels to VIX 50 yesterday!  A 1600 point drop on the Dow also made history.   Yet the masses still don’t understand the nature of the beast.   If sentiment levels are any guide – and they should be, because that’s the only thing that’s truly guiding…

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Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)

Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)   We’ll open today with a look at the dollar and a few comments that the White House has been making in relation thereto.   And we start like this –   Steve Mnuchin, the President’s Treasury Secretary was in Davos this week to laugh at the world’s poor and confabulate over how to keep things humming without too much acting out on the part of the hoi polloi.   And in the midst of it all he offered the following on the sinking American dollar – And that immediately sent the buck-sellers directly into action.  The Dollar Index tanked, adding shame to the already existing scorn, and creating a picture…

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DON’T LOOK BACK! (UUP,IYT)

DON’T LOOK BACK! (UUP,IYT)   We’re currently in the midst of an overbought rapture of retail investor effusion, one that will send markets unpredictably higher in the very near term before an inevitable stall brings it all to a halt.   At that point we’ll have to see what happens.   It could take a few days, a few weeks, or a bit longer, but there’s little chance it won’t occur.  The trajectory has been set, the momentum is building and the masses are enthralled. What’s less predictable is how the rest of the investment world will respond.  In particular, we’ll be looking to the bond market and select commodities for our cues, but equally…

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Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)

Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)   The local authorities in my city have just notified me that my newborn son’s name is  not acceptable to them, and that I’m going to have to change it.   If ever there were a case of government overreach, this is it.   They’ve informed me that in order to keep the moniker that I’ve longed to give him, I’ll have to go to the courthouse on my own time and at my own expense to have the child’s name officially registered before a judge.   If, of course, the judge agrees. In this day and I age, there’s no shortage of asininity in the world.  I can be…

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New Year in, Same as the Old (GDX,OSX,XBI,XLE,KOL,QQQ)

New Year in, Same as the Old (GDX,OSX,XBI,XLE,KOL,QQQ)   We’re going to start off with a look back at our annual mid-year market predictions, found here for all those who hate to leave things salacious and unverified.   And how did we do?   Well, in the first place, we’re pleased to report that it has been another tremendous year of stock picking on the part of our team here at Normandy.  A glance at our track record page (on the website) shows a great deal of profit throughout the year.   That’s not to say there weren’t problems.  We had to roll out a number of troublesome trades to future dates, and that’s never…

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THE KEYS TO THE COMMODITIES (FNV,CGNX,BOTZ)

THE KEYS TO THE COMMODITIES (FNV,CGNX,BOTZ)   In the next couple of weeks, a significant technical signal will be triggered that will affect commodities, in particular, and the stock and bond markets in general.   It’s found in the daily chart of the U.S. Dollar – an item viewed regularly by technicians the world over – and it looks like this… This is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a composite value for the dollar that’s derived from its performance against a basket of six important global currencies.   What you’ll notice, first and foremost, is the rollover occurring in the daily moving averages (circled, in red).  The last of the salient MAs (orange) is now…

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Top o’ the Year to Ya! (DIA,FCX)

Top o’ the Year to Ya! (DIA,FCX)   It’s always easier to look back after the fact and act the sage, point out how obvious all the signs were, how the charts all pointed to that particular Wednesday being the top, and that particular earnings report triggering the selling, and the weak kneed trader at that hedge fund, already embroiled in a drug takedown that implicated the Gandhi crime family, whose sticky finger opened the selling when his Xanax wore off and he was without pills for better than an hour.   Sure.  It was easy as pie. But the truth, of course, is much more mundane.  Very few see the day or the sign…

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The Crypto-Reformation (GFI,AU,AAPL,DIA,AOBC)

The Crypto-Reformation (GFI,AU,AAPL,DIA,AOBC)   The biggest story by far this year in the financial world is Bitcoin, and the hop-along crypto-currencies that have been developed in its wake.   Our own commentary on the phenomenon has been limited thus far, with fellow Normandy scribbler, Hugh L. O’Haynew, chiming in earlier this week with his feelings on the matter at somewhat greater length.   We don’t want to bedevil you today with too much more on the story except to say that there is real evidence that the Bitcoin religion is stealing adherents from the chapels of the precious metal god. Hugh mentioned this in his tirade earlier this week, but just yesterday we caught wind…

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“I Hear Voices…” (QQQ,TYL)

“I Hear Voices…” (QQQ,TYL)   There’s different kinds of insanity.  There’s the psychotic kind that no one likes to talk about, except when it exits the world, as Charles Manson did just weeks ago.   There’s also the less dangerous but far more common ‘dementia’ that strikes far too many good souls in their later years.   Then there’s a host of other illnesses for which both prescription meds and the ‘talking cure’ have been administered, with more or less success, for decades.   Schizoid Market   Schizophrenia is one of those illnesses, and it’s also what first pops to mind when we consider the current state of the stock market.  For how could it…

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