System Signals Silver Sale (SLV,GLD,XAU,TSLA,GM,MSFT)

There are all sorts of trading systems out there.   Some old-timers swear by the Graham and Dodd fundamental model, that tells you to buy them when P/E ratios and dividend yields are sparkling and dump them once the ratios are no longer competitive.   Others will tell you that’s balderdash, and only technical analysis can produce for you winning trades over the long haul.   There are those who swear by cycle analysis, point and Figure charting and Elliott wave theory.  Some adhere exclusively to Dow Theory. And still more go in for Gann triangles and Fibonacci retracements.  And believe it or not, some have even made consistent money trading the interplanetary orbitals of financial astrology!   Here at Normandy we’ve examined them all at one stage or another, and we’re here to tell you that absolutely no system has all the answers – and certainly none is foolproof.  But we can also tell you from experience (and the academic literature is fully behind us on this) that the single best method of making money in the trading arena is by using a trend following system. It doesn’t sound too exotic, and it’s not likely to make you the…

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Better than the Rest (AMZN)

The setup is literally outstanding.   Despite what you may hear in the media and read from Wall Street’s in-house research set, the market is now poised for a tremendous break higher. Well, Quentin, it goes like this…   First off, the headlines would have you believe that the world has reached a tipping point, and no sane individual should ever again consider investing in this casino market of ours.  It’s a refrain we hear over and over.   But what if the odds in the casino are overwhelmingly in your favor?   What if the prospects are bullish?   What do you do then?   Rigged?   There are those who say the current investment game is rigged to the hilt, and that no one can win.   We don’t agree.  There are new winners in the market every day.  Just like there have been for the last century.  And we want you to be the next one.   As for the alleged ‘riggedness’ of the market, we have the following brief statement to submit. The markets were always rigged to some extent, insofar as there were always those who played it to tremendous advantage, either because of their…

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Pawn it, Babe! (CSH)

The energy in the country these days is phenomenal.  On the one hand, you have the excitement that generally accompanies a presidential election year.  On the other, there’s something akin to a hyperactive, child-like tantrum that’s both uncontrollable and undirected.  And it’s everywhere.  And unpredictable.   You’ve seen it.  And likely felt it, too.  It’s covered daily in the traditional press as well as the blogosphere where a million and one individuals simultaneously discuss it, add to it, and, in their own small way, try to shape it. Well, Janie, the truth is no one can be sure.  What we can say is that the climax, if you will, of all this action will be white hot and fiery and will remake our way of life entirely – of that we’re thoroughly convinced.  And perhaps the greatest change of all will be a general population shift, one that started decades ago, but that has increased in momentum of late and will reach a fever-like pitch before all is said and done.   And it is – that in the end, cities will not exist.   Oh, come on!   Sorry to have to say it, but there you go; it’s…

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Dow Jones Goes to War! (DIA)

A few weeks back we took a moment to talk with you about the findings of a woman in the food and nutrition space, a doctor called Natasha Campbell-McBride, whose writings on healthy gut flora are creating an earthquake in the world of diet and health. We urged you then to take some time to acquaint yourself with her program and enlighten yourself regarding the wholesale lies you’ve been fed over the last half century regarding feeding, food and health. We’re not going to get too more detailed at this point; just want to extend the significance of her research toward its impact on society at large and, of course, on markets. In her book, Gut and Psychology Syndrome, Doctor Natasha makes the case that we’re all going crazy because of what we eat. Literally. She claims (quite convincingly) that poor gut health is responsible for nearly all the most common psychological ailments we face in the West today. And because much of our gut flora is inherited, we’re becoming less psychologically sound as a population with each passing year. You are what you eat! Your stomach and intestines are where 70% of your immune system is located. If your…

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The Apple of Everyone’s Eye (AAPL)

We’ve seen two distinct and contradictory vectors in the equity market of late.  One that includes indexes like the Dow, the utilities, the broad commodities complex, the financials, the energy sector, healthcare giants like Johnson & Johnson, European and even Russian (!) issues, along with a host of consumer staples names like Kellogg’s (among others), which are showing strength.   On the other hand, big tech names like Microsoft, Cisco, Google, Intel, Apple and a few others, have performed with demonstrable weakness over the last few weeks, alongside Chinese shares and the U.S. Dollar.   The dollar aside (as that’s a separate issue), we have to wonder which group is the dog and which the tail?   But even more important for those who want to succeed in this market is the question of which group is perceived as the dog and which the tail? As for that, there’s little question that the media preoccupation with the likes of Apple and Microsoft over the last while is proving a far better ‘story’ than any strength behind the names enumerated in the first list above.   And that’s a good thing for those of us who are still bulls after all…

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White Metal, White Hot (SLV,GLD)

We mentioned it before, but it bears repeating – the latest moves in the precious metals market have been both extraordinary and widely advertised.  And while it’s clear to all that the move off the December lows has breathed new life into gold and silver, it’s not so clear whether it will last. There we go again, throwing water on the precious metal flame.   Certainly, there are doubts – and today, those doubts are potentially more potent than they were just a week ago.   But before we get to them, please, don’t get us wrong, the latest rally has been tremendous, and we acknowledge the very real possibility of a turn in the PM market.  Every bear market ends, regardless how long it lasts, and gold’s turn will also come… if it hasn’t already.   What makes us worry is not so much the action in gold.  Rather, it’s silver – the latecomer to the party – that appears to have imbibed a little too much and a little too quickly.   Have a look here – This is six months’ worth of the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV), a reliable proxy for the metal.   What’s clear from…

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OIL HIGHER (USO,XLV,XLU)

There’s a lot to say and a trade to close, so let’s get right to it.   In the first place, the country is angry.  And nothing makes Americans angry like the thought of some privileged elite that arrogates to itself the right to decide things for them.  The original British colony, you’ll recall, was ousted on its keyster and left to fester like a busted oyster.  And for what?  Arrogance.  Thinking they had a right to determine things from afar.   Well, it’s clear today that Washington is the new London, and the self-proclaimed kings of Capitol Hill are neither wanted nor welcome, if the latest presidential primaries have anything to say on the matter.   A New World Dawning   America is about to change in ways no one can imagine.  And a great deal of that change is going to be less than pleasant.  And it’s also going to affect the markets and your money.   But before we get there, we still have one final, stomach-churning rocket ride higher, and it’s going to be juiced by the following factors:   Short Covering – there’s a massive short interest out there, and it only seems to grow…

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Trading Basics (TSLA,MSFT,OLN)

We’ve had several readers contact us over the years to ask how it is we stick so fiercely to the same set of technical tools to obtain our read of the markets.  And the answer is simple.   Our reliance on a set of four moving averages, volume, RSI and MACD have everything to do with the fact that, after almost twenty-five years of toying and testing every possible indicator available, these ones actually work consistently. Now, that’s not to say that other tools won’t work, or that we don’t occasionally rummage through the technical toolbox to confirm what the above named indicators are telling us.  No, no.   Indeed, we look to a variety of metrics to help us gauge market direction, including price patterns, sentiment numbers, Fibonacci counts, Japanese candle formations and a host of other market internals.  But from the standpoint of pure technical analysis, the above four indicators are, for us, 90% of the show.   And this is how we use them –   RSI and MACD   These two indicators work in tandem, with RSI leading and MACD confirming.  Once RSI crosses above (or below) its midway ‘waterline’, we have a bullish (or bearish)…

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End of the Bug-Bear? (DIA,SLV)

For the last three and a half months the precious metals have been rallying.  On and off, wheeling and rocking, the whole sector, including the miners, have been waging a fierce battle to conquer their respective down-trending moving averages and recapture the glory they lost in 2011.   And everyone has been pitching in with the effort…   Almost.   Until yesterday, silver bullion was the lone holdout, the last bastion of stubborn-assed bearishness in a group that almost without exception was hailing a new era of freewheeling profits for the gold buggerers and hard currency advocates the world over. So what changed?  What made the silver market go ‘pop’ like we don’t ever remember seeing it do in the last 20 years?   Well, it could’ve been dollar weakness, which we saw yesterday to some degree – a loss, yes, but nothing out of the ordinary, and certainly nothing that would explain the extraordinary levitation of the move in silver.   There was something more at work here.   Perhaps it was tied to revelations from Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), that traders there had played a role in rigging the silver market for years now – and were threatening to…

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What the Hell Are You Eating!? (QQQ,C,URBN)

A brief digression in the name of another truth…   We want to suggest to you all – each and every one of you – that you take an hour out of your busy schedule to explore the findings of a woman called Natasha Campbell-McBride, a Russian born neurologist who’s based in Cambridge or Oxford, England, or some such.   Now, it’s not usually our place to comment on what you’re eating or to tell you how to cook the food you buy.  We’re more interested in making you the money you need to do it however the hell you please.   But because the world’s in such a pitiful state, and because most of you and your children suffer from a variety of heinous afflictions that are perfectly avoidable and require a mere change in diet (yes, brother, diet!), we feel more than a passing compunction to offer you the following.   Are you sick and tired and fed up with being sick and tired…   The lady’s done her homework.   Dr. Campbell-McBride has found, among other things, that diet (yes, diet!) is capable of fixing a broad complex of medical and health issues from which we all…

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