THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY)

THE POLAR VORTEX HAS SPLIT! (UNG,USO,SPY) OH. MY. GAWD!   In a development that’s caught nearly everyone off guard, a massive high pressure system recently sundered the normally quiescent Arctic ‘polar vortex’ in two!   It’s a little known, unique weather event that, according to meteorologists, could bring MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AMERICAN EAST COAST AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS TO THE WEST COAST AND CONTINENTAL EUROPE! Did you get that?   In the coming weeks, the weather may change due to this disruption of the normally static low pressure cell that sits over the Arctic!   And whaddaya know, U.K. natural gas contracts have already spiked some 3.5% in anticipation of the cold blast,…

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That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)

That’s Some Horse! (DIA,AAPL,UUP,IYT)   There are stats and there are stats.  And, of course, when the market is in the middle of a panic breakdown, all the facts fit to print are lugged out of the analyst valise in order to convince you of what’s to come. And here at Normandy, we’re really no different.  Regardless of how little we trust the mainstream, fundamental approach to investing in this era of absolute government intervention, we have to rely on something.  Coin-flipping went out at least a century ago in the stock buying game.   As we’ve stated repeatedly, the contest is now being played on the sentiment front – in large part – while…

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Phoenix Envy (SPY)

Phoenix Envy (SPY)   The market will move in the direction the majority least expect, for a duration that no one can predict, reversing precisely at a time that the greatest number are blindsided.   Or as a wise investor once wrote, “The market’s raison d’etre is to reach as deeply as possible into the pockets of average investors and empty them.” It’s for that reason that professional investors developed tools to protect themselves.   And one of those is the ‘moving average’.   Here at Normandy, we use a proprietary selection of moving averages that have often raised eyebrows, but we use them for a simple reason: they work.   After settling on them…

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Jimmy! We’re Stuck in a Market Maelstrom! (GDX,DIA)

Jimmy! We’re Stuck in a Market Maelstrom! (GDX,DIA)   That’s the way bookie fumbles, folks.   You enter the casino either as an oddsmaker or a bettor, and it doesn’t matter which – in both roles you run an equal risk of exiting a loser.   And that’s the lesson of the last week in equity markets, too, a period that witnessed volatility jump from near record low levels to VIX 50 yesterday!  A 1600 point drop on the Dow also made history.   Yet the masses still don’t understand the nature of the beast.   If sentiment levels are any guide – and they should be, because that’s the only thing that’s truly guiding…

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The Wisdom of Solomon (TLT)

The Wisdom of Solomon (TLT)   You’ve been listening to the car rattle and shake for some time now, but it still moves OK, and everyone tells you what a fine looking beast she is and how she’s reliable and all, so you let it go.   But the noise is bothering the wife a little too much to maintain peace in the castle, so in lieu of letting her fears fester and risk an outright coup, you take her to the shop.   The car, that is.   You shimmy on down to the local industrial zone, and, as usual, Sonny is all smiles and handshakes, the black under his fingernails a tad worrisome…

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Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)

Let’s Talk Dollars (UUP,DBC,DIA)   We’ll open today with a look at the dollar and a few comments that the White House has been making in relation thereto.   And we start like this –   Steve Mnuchin, the President’s Treasury Secretary was in Davos this week to laugh at the world’s poor and confabulate over how to keep things humming without too much acting out on the part of the hoi polloi.   And in the midst of it all he offered the following on the sinking American dollar – And that immediately sent the buck-sellers directly into action.  The Dollar Index tanked, adding shame to the already existing scorn, and creating a picture…

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Getting Carried Away (SPY,IEF,PFE)

Getting Carried Away (SPY,IEF,PFE)   There’s a concept in statistics that’s regularly applied to markets called ‘mean reversion’.  It’s a rather simple idea, that anytime numbers get too far stretched from their long-term historical norms – either too high or too low – they eventually snap back.   And it has proven itself long enough to be relied upon by market analysts for at least a half century.  Simply put – a market is in danger of a whiplash reversal when it strays too far from its mean.  Forewarned is forearmed. The only problem with the concept is that no one can know what any security’s ultimate breaking point is.   That is, how long…

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DON’T LOOK BACK! (UUP,IYT)

DON’T LOOK BACK! (UUP,IYT)   We’re currently in the midst of an overbought rapture of retail investor effusion, one that will send markets unpredictably higher in the very near term before an inevitable stall brings it all to a halt.   At that point we’ll have to see what happens.   It could take a few days, a few weeks, or a bit longer, but there’s little chance it won’t occur.  The trajectory has been set, the momentum is building and the masses are enthralled. What’s less predictable is how the rest of the investment world will respond.  In particular, we’ll be looking to the bond market and select commodities for our cues, but equally…

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Washington Redeemed! (AAPL,EWP,CBOE,FB)

Washington Redeemed! (AAPL,EWP,CBOE,FB)   Never were fans of big government here at Normandy.  Don’t think it’s good for the overall health of the nation, nor for its better management or even for its longevity.   Never trusted it.  Always figured the goal was to put everyone on the payroll and then force feed them worthless currency.  Where else are the buzzturds gonna turn for a buck?!   Nope, always preferred the local brand of self-governance – really local! So the thought of someone – an outsider – coming to the big house ready to do battle with the forces-that-be was intriguing.  But whether Senor Trump actually fits that bill remains an open question.   We’ve…

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Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)

Out With the Old… (DIA,XRT,PIR,FIT,SLV,XBI,XLE,GS,UIS,SIRI,RSX,QQQ)   The local authorities in my city have just notified me that my newborn son’s name is  not acceptable to them, and that I’m going to have to change it.   If ever there were a case of government overreach, this is it.   They’ve informed me that in order to keep the moniker that I’ve longed to give him, I’ll have to go to the courthouse on my own time and at my own expense to have the child’s name officially registered before a judge.   If, of course, the judge agrees. In this day and I age, there’s no shortage of asininity in the world.  I can be…

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